With the warmth of spring comes the threat of thunderstorms and severe weather. Kentucky is no stranger to tornadoes in the spring.
As temperatures warm, thunderstorms become more likely. Cyclones form in the Plains near the Rockies as warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cooler and drier air from the north and west.
With plenty of shear (or wind that changes in speed and direction with height), thunderstorms begin to rotate.
If a "tube" of rotating air lifts into the vertical by a thunderstorm updraft, the whole storm begins to rotate. This is called a supercell.
Eventually, a wall cloud forms at the base of the supercell. That is followed by a funnel cloud. If the conditions are just right, a tornado forms.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, Kentucky typically experiences two tornadoes in March. Western Kentucky has the greatest chance of seeing a tornado during this month.
April sees more tornadoes than March, with an average number of five.
The month of May ties with April, with any typical year seeing five tornadoes.
The warmer and more humid the atmosphere, the greater the chance for tornadoes, which is why April and May see more than March.
Looking at the United States, the areas that see the most tornadoes in March are in the Deep South and Lower Mississippi River Valley.
Tornadoes become more common in Kentucky in April. The greater chance zone encompasses much of the Midwest and the South. The highest risk of tornadoes occurs in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Alabama.
I'm sure you have heard of Tornado Alley. Well, in May, that is where the focus is for tornadoes. However, parts of Kentucky are in the zone of a greater risk for tornadoes.
Western Kentucky is no stranger to tornadoes in spring, or even winter, as we know all too well from the December 2021 tornadoes.
The chance for a significant tornado of an EF-2 rating or greater in mid-April is highest in central and western Kentucky, with a 0.2% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a particular place.
The Storm Prediction Center estimated these probability values from a 30-year period of severe weather reports from 1982 to 2011.
In early May, the chance for an EF-2 tornado or greater is still highest in western Kentucky.
Here is a reminder of some things you should do in case you are ever under a Tornado Warning.