LEXINGTON, Ky. – The window to cast absentee mail-in ballots has already opened and closed and with early in-person voting now underway in Kentucky, voter turnout looks to be the highest in decades across the Commonwealth. Some questions posed in the recent Spectrum/IPSOS Poll asked Kentuckians how likely they are to vote in this year’s presidential election, their preferred voting method, how much confidence they had their vote would be counted this year, and if they trust the outcome of the presidential election.

Overall, 66% of people polled said they plan to vote in the upcoming election. The poll shows 86% of people in households making more than $100,000 per year plan to vote, while just 48% of people registered as Independent plan to cast a ballot. People polled in the Louisville metro area (74%) said they are likely to vote compared to 57% in the Lexington metro area and 65% across the rest of Kentucky. 

Most of the state’s likely voters (67%) are men, and 69% are in the 35-54 age range. Seventy-two percent of likely voters have a child in their home, 77% have a college degree, 76% work full time and 72% are married. 

Blacks comprise the most likely voters among race, with 72% responding they are likely to vote. Sixty-six percent of whites and Hispanics are likely to vote, while 78% of whites with a college degree are likely to vote, according to the poll.

People that live in the suburbs (72%) are more likely to vote than rural residents (63%) or urban (62%).

Half of the people polled plan to vote in-person with 33% saying they will do so on Election Day. While 37% responded they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, 28% of those people plan to, or did mail their ballots, while 9% intended to submit their absentee ballots at an election office or polling place. 

More Republicans polled (72%) said they plan to vote in-person, with 51% planning to do so on Election Day. Just 33% of people polled in the Lexington metro area said they plan to vote in-person with 17% saying it will be on Election Day. More Hispanics (58%) said they plan to vote by mail than Blacks (43%), whites (36%), Asians (42%), or other races (26%) polled. People who live in urban areas (45%) plan to vote by mail more than people who live in suburban areas (43%) or in rural areas (30%).

When asked how confident they are their votes will be counted, 79% of people polled were confident with 57% saying they are “very confident” 22% are “somewhat confident.” Thirteen percent of people polled are not confident their votes will count, with 7% responding they are “not very confident” and another 7% saying they are “not confident at all.”

Most of the 79% of people that responded they are confident their vote will count plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while 74% of people that feel confident planned to cast their ballot in-person before Election Day. Just 55% of Kentuckians that voted by mail or absentee ballot are confident their votes will count. Thirty-seven percent of those who responded they are “not confident” voted by mail or absentee ballot.

Eighty-two percent of whites that said they are confident their votes will be counted plan to vote in-person on Election Day, compared to 65% of Blacks and 67% of Hispanics. Just 37% of Hispanics who voted absentee are confident their votes will be counted. 

Just 62% of people polled across the state said they are likely to trust the outcome of the presidential election, with those most likely to trust the outcome living in the Lexington metro area (71%), men (69%), over age 55 (75%), with a household income over $100,000 a year (83%). More Hispanics (66%) said they are likely to trust the outcome of the race than Black (65%), or whites (62%). 

Twenty-three percent of Kentuckians, with 32% of people polled in the 18-35 age range and 35% of registered Independents, responding that they are unlikely to trust the outcome of the presidential race.