It may be hard to believe after the hot week across SoCal, but based on the astronomical calendar, summer is just beginning.

Many are probably wondering what the rest of the summer will look like. Let’s check the three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and go over what it means for us.

What You Need To Know

  • CPC is calling for a 40 to 60 percent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this summer in SoCal

  • There is an equal chance of above, below, or near-normal precipitation

  • In general, the outlook predicts much warmer than average conditions across the western U.S. July through September

The CPC outlook called for a much warmer-than-average June, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far. 

The three-month outlook from July through September shows a 40 to 60 percent chance of above-average temperatures across SoCal.

That doesn’t mean we will have above-normal temperatures every single day all summer long, but the odds favor a warmer-than-average summer in general. That goes for much of the country, especially the Great Basin.

Unfortunately, this is not what we want to hear, given the current drought conditions we also have across the West. 

For months now, the drought across California has continued to grow week by week. Take a look at the comparison between the start of the year and now.

Only about 34 percent of the state was in an extreme drought back in January, with about 1 percent in an exceptional drought. Now, just five months later, about 85 percent of the state is dealing with extreme drought, while about 33 percent has exceptional drought conditions. These are the two worst categories of drought.

Along with that, we also have critically dry vegetation across the region. Just with this first heat wave of the season, we had small brush fires pop up almost every day.

What we didn’t have was the wind. Add the heat, dry fuels and gusty Santa Ana winds as we go through summer and fall, and you have the perfect recipe for another devastating fire season.

We already had a dry winter and spring season, and the summer heat will only dry out the vegetation more, making it prime to burn once a spark hits it and the winds carry it.

The only thing that could work in our favor this summer is the monsoon moisture across the Southwest, similar to what we saw this past week. That brought higher humidity values and even some light rain.

The CPC three-month precipitation outlook calls for an equal chance of above, below or near-normal precipitation through the summer.

That means we are neither favored for a wet or dry summer, which isn’t always a bad thing. It means we have a chance to see decent rainfall this summer with tropical moisture carried up from the south.

The odds do not favor a drier than average summer across the Southwest, which is good news.

Last year, the monsoon season was mostly absent across the Southwest, and that was a big reason why the drought became so prominent across the Four Corners region to begin with. Following that, the dry conditions during our peak winter months did not help, and here we are in this current drought situation.

For now, it’s best to prepare for a warm summer, the upcoming Santa Ana wind and wildfire season – and also hope for a good monsoon season that could bring beneficial rainfall in the coming months.