MILWAUKEE — With just five days to go until the Midterm elections, a new exclusive Spectrum News/Siena College Poll shows the biggest statewide races in Wisconsin to be tighter than ever.

In the race for governor, incumbent Tony Evers has a two-point advantage over Republican Tim Michels, with 47% favoring Evers and 45% backing Michels.

The results are well within the margin of error, which makes the race tied.

Similarly, in the U.S. Senate race between Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes, Johnson now leads by the same margin as Evers in the race for governor, 47% to 45%.

Despite those razor-thin margins, there still seems to be some momentum behind Republicans. Here are three reasons why:

 

Democrats have lost their edge

Democrats have either lost breathing room or their lead altogether.

When Spectrum News first polled Wisconsinites in September, Tony Evers was up five points over his opponent Tim Michels. Now, Evers is down two points, and Michels is up by one point, which gives Evers just a two-point advantage within the margin of error.

Support for the Democrat in the U.S. Senate race has also slipped. Mandela Barnes once led that contest by a single point, but he trailed by two points going into November.

From a horse race perspective, Democrats have lost ground.

Candidate favorability has changed

When it comes to how favorable the candidates are viewed among likely voters, Tim Michels was and still is underwater. However, the recent poll did show more people know Michels than they did back in September, which is why it is unsurprising his favorability has improved by five points.

On the other hand, more people now have an unfavorable view of Tony Evers than a positive one. That was not the case in September when the governor enjoyed a positive favorability rating.

Mandela Barnes also became more unfavorable compared to the previous Spectrum News poll, and Ron Johnson, similar to Michels, has been able to boost his favorability recently.

Mood toward the direction Wisconsin is going

The last indication of a boost in momentum among Republicans has to do with how likely voters feel about the direction the state is going.

A majority, though barely at 51%, said Wisconsin is headed in the wrong direction, and only about a third feel the state is on the right track. As you might imagine, such beliefs could factor into Evers' reelection bid.

“85% of those who said the state is moving in the right direction say 'I'm going to vote for Tony Evers. I like the job he is doing,'” Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said. “However, among those voters, a majority who say the state is moving in the wrong direction, two-thirds of those voters, 68%, say they are going to vote for Tim Michels.”

The trend is similar in the U.S. Senate race when likely voters were asked how they felt about the direction of the United States.

Evers and Michels react to the latest numbers

The Evers campaign acknowledged how tight the race has become while vowing to make the most of what is left of the campaign season.

“With just one week to go until Election Day, Wisconsinites know that Gov. Tony Evers is the only candidate for governor who will do the right thing to invest in our kids, lower costs for working families, and keep communities safe,” Kayla Anderson, deputy communications director for Tony for Wisconsin, said in a statement. “As Tim Michels continues to embrace radical policies that are completely out of touch with Wisconsinites, Gov. Evers is traveling across the state to talk to voters about the stakes of this election and highlight his record of moving the state forward. This poll confirms this will be one of the closest races in the country, and that is why we cannot take our foot off the gas.”

Incoming Human Rights Campaign President, Kelley Robinson, center, speaks with Gov. Tony Evers, right, and Sen. Tammy Baldwin, left, on Wednesday, Nov. 02, 2022 during a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wis. (Mike Roemer/AP Images for Human Rights Campaign)

Meanwhile, Tim Michels weighed in on several recent polls during a campaign event held Thursday afternoon in Middleton.

“Yesterday, there were three polls, and we are pulling away,” Michels told the crowd. “If you take all the polls from a week ago through five weeks ago, you put them all in a dice cup, and roll them out on the bar, it was crazy. It was a complete, exact statistical tie.”

The Spectrum News/Siena College poll released Thursday has an overall +/-4.8% margin of error, which makes both races statistically tied.