LEXINGTON, Ky. — A major tornado in Dec. 2021, catastrophic flooding last summer and historic winds in March have rocked the state. These kinds of weather events and the proximity to one another have Kentucky residents concerned about climate change.
Jerry Brotzge, the state climatologist of Kentucky, has another possible theory.
“We are seeing a general warming and wetting of the climate currently here in Kentucky, but we also don’t know how much of that is natural fluctuations,” said Brotzge.
According to about 125 years’ worth of records that Brotzge has studied, the state is experiencing weather patterns similar to the 1930s.
“When you look at that decade, it’s very comparable to what we’re seeing now,” he explained.
From the late 1800s to the 1930s, Kentucky experienced rapid warming. That decade, as a whole, was warm and also had a major flooding event. Kentucky then saw a cooling trend until the 1960s and has experienced warming since the 1980s.
“There are some natural fluctuations on this larger climate record that we’ve seen, at least here in Kentucky,” said Brotzge.
Those natural fluctuations have made it difficult for scientists to determine whether climate change is playing a role in the extreme events that have taken place in Kentucky.
According to Brotzge, these kinds of weather events have taken place throughout Kentucky’s history.
“When you look at the 125 years, you see — every decade has its share of extreme events,” said Brotzge.
During Director Pat Dugger’s 35-year tenure with the Lexington and Fayette County Emergency Management division, she has noticed a change.
“The weather events have become more severe, they have become more frequent,” said Dugger. “Usually we’d say, you know, the wind or tornado season is from May to September. Well, now it’s almost year-round.”
Brotzge said that there is good news and bad news. The good news is that with more technological advancements, people can be alerted of extreme weather sooner and be better prepared.
“When I first started, we were lucky if we got six to eight minutes warning from the weather service to put out something to the public and, you know, every little step takes time so there was almost hardly any warning to the public,” said Dugger. “Now with the weather service, we get 12, 18 minutes.”
The bad news is that higher populations of people means more infrastructure that can be damaged from extreme weather.
“When these events occur, they’re much more expensive than they’ve ever been,” said Brotzge.
As for the cost of damages in Fayette County from Friday’s storm, Dugger estimated that it could be at around $2 million. If you live in the county and experienced any property damage as a result of the storm, you can fill out an online form here to report it.