WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris holds a four-point lead ahead of former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday.
Among likely voters, Harris gets 52% of the vote to Trump’s 48%, a statistical tie given the margin of error. Because Wisconsin is one of the seven battlegrounds that will determine the election, both the Trump and Harris campaigns are relentlessly focusing on the state, with visits and a barrage of campaign ads. Still, the margin is exactly the same as in the last Marquette poll, taken in late August into September.
“There’s been very little change over the last three polls since Harris got in, so things don’t look like they’re very dynamic,” said Charles Franklin, the poll’s director. “We’re seeing a smaller advantage for Harris now that she’s in the race than we were seeing for Biden in 2020 or we were seeing for Clinton in 2016.”
Franklin said there’s nuance to this, though.
“It’s a mixed bag,” he said. “My poll and almost everybody else’s polls overstated Clinton’s lead and overstated Biden’s lead. And so, in that sense, I think a smaller lead ought to be reassuring that we’re not seeing the same larger leads that we saw in the previous two presidential races. On the other hand, we could be off by as much as we were then, in which case, Trump’s actually ahead. So, there’s no reassurance on this. Other than that, internally, the numbers look pretty reasonable and stable, but we’ll only know the truth after Election Day.”
Franklin said this is the second poll in a row showing independents moving toward Harris. Before President Joe Biden dropped out this summer, they were leaning toward Trump.
“Independents have been going a little over 60% for Harris,” Franklin said. “It helps account for why we have a four-point Harris lead now versus a one-point Trump lead in July, right after Harris entered the race.”
Including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the poll found Harris with 49%, Trump at 44% and Kennedy with 3% among likely voters. Kennedy has suspended his campaign but will still be on Wisconsin’s ballot. The last poll showed Kennedy with 6%, so he’s losing support.
The economy remains the top issue in Wisconsin, followed by abortion and immigration in a tie for second place. In the last poll, abortion was second and immigration was third.
The poll shows voters still think Trump is the better candidate to handle the economy, but his advantage on this issue has narrowed.
“That’s one of the reasons that [Harris is] not running away with the race, and it’s one reason to think that Trump’s strength still holds because people care about the economy,” Franklin said. “They still have a pretty negative view of the economy, and they think their personal financial situation is worse now than it was in 2019 before the pandemic.”
In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin gets 53% of the vote among likely voters, to 46% for Republican businessman Eric Hovde. This is a small tick up for Baldwin from the last Marquette poll.
“I think that we see a consistent pattern on views of the candidates, so [Baldwin is] dead even on favorability, 47-47, so a net of zero. But Hovde’s a net negative nine points–nine points more unfavorable than favorable–and that’s unchanged from early in September,” Franklin said. “So he has definitely made inroads with the public, but he hasn’t yet managed to tip people into seeing him in a more favorable rather than unfavorable light.”
Enthusiasm among voters is strong for both Republicans and Democrats.
“People are getting engaged with 33 days to go,” Franklin said. “Still plenty of time to get registered, get a mail ballot, or show up to vote early, or wait till Election Day.”
Pollsters interviewed 798 likely Wisconsin voters between Sept. 18-26. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points.
“Polls don’t vote, people do,” Franklin said. “So, for goodness sake, don’t pay attention to me. Go out and make up your mind and vote for whoever you want to vote for, early or late. I don’t care, but just go out and do it.”