MADISON, Wis. — Republicans will make their pick for president in Milwaukee next summer, but until then, battleground states could influence the process along the way.
As the saying goes, “all roads to the White House run through Wisconsin,” and while that will literally be the case, states along the way, including Iowa and New Hampshire, will influence Republicans’ presidential nominating process that unfolds at the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
It could already be a race for second place in a crowded field of Republicans. At least that’s what some pollsters have said in New Hampshire, which is the first stop on a long road to the presidency.
“I will depend on how many candidates drop out,” Andy Smith, who is the Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said. “I think that you’re likely to see Mike Pence and Tim Scott, of the major candidates, both drop out fairly soon. Probably an Asa Hutchinson, although he’s not having much impact on the race, anyway.”
Iowa is also known for thinning the field, especially when campaigns become increasingly costly to run.
“If you can’t convince people in a state like Iowa, with that kind of time [and] with that kind of commitment, then where else can you really do that? There’s just going to be an immense amount of pressure on these candidates to consolidate once we get beyond this state,” Des Moines Register Chief Politics Reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel explained. “And if you haven’t proven yourself as a viable contender, the money is going to fall apart.”
Marquette pollster Charles Franklin said the outcome of those two races could solidify the primary field, especially for places with later primaries, including Wisconsin.
“If Trump wins both of those, it’s hard to see how there’s any rationale for a continued primary battle,” Franklin said. “If, shocking all of us, Trump were to lose one or both of them, then there’s lots of room for things to happen.”
However, Franklin said Wisconsin shouldn’t be written off with such a late primary.
“Remember in 2016, Trump and Ted Cruz had this battle royale here that Trump lost,” Franklin added. “Actually, remember that Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders had quite a fight on that day in 2016 as well, so just because we’re in April doesn’t mean we’re always irrelevant.”