MADISON, Wis. — The statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate have received a lot of attention, unsurprisingly. However, the local races for state Assembly and Senate could lead to bigger changes come January.
Down-ballot races matter more than some might realize. Regardless of what happens in the race for governor, Republicans hope to gain a veto-proof majority this fall. The chances of doing so are not entirely out of reach.
If Republicans can hang on to all of the seats they hold now, and flip five in the Assembly and one in the Senate, they would be able to override any vetoes by whoever is governor after November.
During an event hosted by WisPolitics Tuesday, political insiders from both sides of the aisle weighed in on the likelihood of a supermajority.
Democrats on the panel said they don't see Republicans picking up the necessary two-thirds in both chambers. While it seems likely to happen in the Senate, it is more of an uphill battle in the Assembly, where Republicans would need to hang on to 61 seats and pick up five more.
“Even if the Republicans were able to pull that off, they would have to beat Katrina Shankland in Stevens Point—not going to happen,” Chuck Chvala, a former Democratic lawmaker, said. “Yeah, sure, there's some rural territory around there, but that's a plus five, plus six Democratic seat. Not going to happen.”
Republicans agree gaining the needed seats in the Assembly is a long shot. However, for them, flipping three out of the five seats seems achievable, while other parts of the state, including Stevens Point and Oshkosh, would need a so-called "red wave."
“You're going to have to run 7, 8, 9, 10 points ahead of the Republican candidate for governor,” Scott Jensen, a former Republican legislator, explained. “That's possible, but that's a stretch.”
The ability for Republicans to win in those tough districts could be determined by the race for governor and U.S. Senate.
“For the Republicans to get to 66 [seats], they need Michels and Johnson to be doing well enough statewide that they're at least getting close in one of those two seats,” Joe Handrick, also a former Republican lawmaker, said.
This fall, all 99 seats in the Assembly are up for election, along with 17 of the 33 seats in the Senate. In order to have a veto override, Republicans would need a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers.