OHIO — Holiday sales are expected to grow for Buckeye State as shoppers begin crossing items off their lists for the season.

According to the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants' holiday sales forecast, the state's 2024 holiday sales are expected to increase by 1.1% with total sales reaching $30.4 billion.

What You Need To Know

  • Ohio is forecasted to see a 1.1% increase in holiday sales

  • Ohio Council of Retail Merchants' forecast comes from the University of Cincinnati Economics Center

  • Certain factors affect spending such as employment, inflation and wages

  • The study covered nine metro areas including: Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown, Akron, Lima and Mansfield

The council's forecast comes from the University of Cincinnati Economics Center, which notes while the state's sales have increased from 2023, the 1.1% growth is lower than the national forecast rangning from 2.3% to 7%.

"This twelfth consecutive positive forecast reflects Ohioans' growing confidence in the economy," said Gordon Gough, President and CEO of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, in a news release. "As memories of COVID fade, more Ohioans adjust to and benefit from a steady economic recovery."

Brad Evans, executive director of the University of Cincinnati Economics Center, said certain factors that affect spending, such as employment, inflation and wages are trending positively in Ohio.

"We're also pleased that the forecast projects all nine metro areas analyzed in Ohio to enjoy an increase in holiday relevant retail sales over 2023," Gough said in the release. "Ohio's three largest metro areas, Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, will again account for more than half (55.6%) of Ohio's sales."

The study covered nine metro areas including: Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown, Akron, Lima and Mansfield.

While accounting for 55.6% of sales, Cleveland is forecasted to see a 0.4% growth; Cincinnati a 0.6% growth while Columbus is forecasted to see a 5.3% growth.

Mansfield is expected to see the largest increase in retail sales at 7.3%. Columbus is expected to see the second largest and Youngstown the third at 4.3%. Akron is forecasted for a 1.4% growth, Lima a 2.7%, Dayton 1.7% and Toledo has the lowest forecasted growth at 0.2%.

The study notes several specific improvements within Ohio's economy including:

  • 2023 employment being 6.8% higher than the 2020 pre-pandemic level
  • Wages and salaries incresed by approximately 20% between 2020 and 2023
  • Inflation slowing to 2.5% in the Midwest from Sept. 2023 to Sept. 2024 

According to the forecast, online shopping continue to grow for retail sales. Growth for online and mobile shopping has exceeded overall retail sales growth in the state since 2013.

View the full report below.