WASHINGTON, D.C. — Where Ohio went, so went the nation in years past. Those who won the Buckeye State won the national election from 1964 until 2020, when the state took a sharp right turn, ending its bellwether status.

When former President Donald Trump won Ohio in 2020 by 8 points, but lost nationally, the political calculus changed for presidential candidates.

“The fact is in 2024, Ohio is not a battleground state. This is not where the election's going to be won or lost,” said Dave Cohen, professor of political science at the University of Akron. “We can tell by the number of visits. We can tell by the money that's being spent by the presidential campaigns.”

Ohio has been visited by presidential candidates three times this year—twice by Trump and once by Biden. Swing state Pennsylvania has seen a total of nine visits—two by Trump and seven by Biden.

The Trump and Biden campaigns have collectively spent $5.5 million so far in Pennsylvania, according to campaign finance records, more than eight times the $660,000 they’ve spent in Ohio.

The shift reflects a change in the demographics of the state, and of the Republican Party.

Ohio is whiter and less educated than the U.S. as a whole. Its population has also grown older in recent decades, as the labor force has shed 91,000 workers and young people leave to find jobs.

In the same period, both older voters and White voters without a college degree have shifted more Republican, according to a Pew Research study.

Still, officials like Toledo Mayor Wade Kapszukiewicz warned not to count the state out yet, pointing to voter referendums last year that legalized recreational cannabis and enshrined abortion rights into the state constitution.

Maybe it's not as much of a swing state as it had been, but I still think it's more of a swing state than maybe some perceive. I think the real story in Ohio is what can happen through gerrymandering,” Kapszukiewicz said. “It can mask the swing state that I still think it has the potential to be.”

While presidential campaigns are spending less in Ohio this cycle, the state’s Senate race is drawing outsized national attention as Republicans seek to turn the balance of power in the Senate.

The Senate race is currently the second most expensive congressional race in the country this cycle, with $75 million spent so far by campaigns and outside groups.

Paradoxically, fewer presidential visits could help Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s reelection campaign, which is trying to distance itself from Biden’s 36% approval rating in Ohio.

“Even if Biden were to come to Ohio, I think the Brown campaign would ask him to please not,” Cohen said.