OHIO — With just six weeks until the election, Ohioans are deciding who will get their vote in November. But when it comes to the governor’s race, many have already made up their minds. 

​An exclusive Spectrum News/Siena College Poll of Ohio likely voters showed incumbency could be key with Republican Gov. Mike DeWine leading Democrat and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley 55% to 32% with a +/- 4-point margin of error.

Spectrum News 1 Political Analyst Brian Calfano said the results are not surprising.

“It didn’t surprise me because you’ve got Mike DeWine who’s been an institution in Buckeye State politics for the last half-century really,” said Calfano.

​Whaley is hoping reproductive rights and other issues that resonate with women will draw voters to the poll.

“We’ve seen since the Dobbs’ decision in late June that polling across the country has failed to accurately gauge the enthusiasm and momentum that has accompanied women voting in a post Roe reality,” said Courtney Rice, spokesperson for the Whaley Campaign. “What we are seeing on the ground, however, is that Ohio women and their families are pissed off, and they have every right to be.

“Under Mike DeWine’s leadership, Ohio has become one of the most restrictive states for abortion access and reproductive freedom in the country. Women in Ohio out-registered men by an 11-point margin in the two months since Dobbs, and analyses have shown that these women are overwhelmingly Democratic," Rice said. ​

Despite Whaley’s efforts, the poll results showed 19% of Democrats surveyed said they would vote for DeWine.

“Our DeWine-Husted team is pounding the pavement across the state knocking doors, making phone calls, and meeting with voters at fairs, parades, tailgates — you name it, we’re there,” said Tricia McLaughlin, spokesperson for the DeWine campaign. “Our fundraising numbers reflect that same level of enthusiasm that we are seeing at the grassroots level.”

When asked how they feel about the future of our country based on the state of the democracy, 56% of Ohio likely voters polled said they feel pessimistic, while 37% feel optimistic. In a stark comparison, only 27% say they feel pessimistic about theirs and their family’s future, while 67% feel optimistic about it.

Calfano said this is the reality of American politics right now.

“Because people look at the country and the world around them and they see that there’s a lot of bad news for us collectively, they look at the right direction, wrong direction questions in these surveys and they say 'Yeah, overall, we’re not going in the right place, but my life right now is doing pretty well,' and that’s a good thing for incumbents like Mike DeWine,” he said.

Calfano said the incumbency remains the biggest obstacle for Whaley.

“It’s really an uphill climb for Whaley, and it’s made even more so by the fact that Mike DeWine is just a popular figure across the aisle here in Ohio,” he said.