LONG BEACH, Calif. — With Black Friday right around the corner, consumer experts say to expect a "record-breaking holiday season" as more people come out and shop in-person and spend more this holiday season.
Last year, a combination of government restrictions, limited business hours, and overall apprehensiveness from consumers prevented many shoppers from going out to shop due to the coronavirus pandemic.
But this year is different.
Shoppers are antsy to go out and shop – online and in-person, said Dr. Zoe Bryan Engstrom, a consumer affairs lecturer at California State University, Long Beach.
"After a year and a half of being inside, we're seeing a desire to get out, shop, lunch, see Santa, and spend time with loved ones shopping in person," Engstrom said in an email to Spectrum News. "Many shoppers have indicated they will be shopping both in-person and online; best of both worlds."
Black Friday, which occurs the day after Thanksgiving, is usually the biggest shopping event of the year. The day is marked with "door-buster sales," discounted items, and long lines – to get inside retail stores and at the checkout.
The invention of Small Business Saturday the following day to support shopping at local small businesses, and Cyber Monday, which is the online shopping equivalent of Black Friday, Thanksgiving weekend kicks off the holiday shopping season.
The coronavirus pandemic and delta variant surge last fall kept many shoppers home.
Still, with vaccination rates up and vaccines for the coronavirus readily available, experts say growing pent-up demand and revenge spending has many consumers wanting to go out to spend, spend, spend.
Engstrom said while there was a stall in sales earlier in the year with the end of government pandemic assistance checks, that does not expect to impact this year's holiday sales.
"Last year, on average, a shopper spent just under $700 during the holiday season," Engstrom said. "This year projected average per person sales are expected to be just under $800; up over $100 from last year."
According to the National Retail Federation, or NRF, nearly two million more people than last year expect to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday.
Approximately 156.6 million people shopped last year, the NRF report found. This year, more than 158.3 million are shopping throughout the weekend.
Many shoppers have already begun shopping, ensuring they receive their items on hand because of the current supply chain crisis.
The increased number of shoppers highlights the retail industry's rebound, but it is still below the 165.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019.
NRF is forecasting that holiday sales will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% during November and December, or about $843.4 billion and $859 billion from the previous pandemic year, setting records for the growth rate and total amount spent.
In a previous report, Deloitte said consumers nationwide, on average, will spend $1,400 in holiday spending this year. Consumers in the Los Angeles area are expected to spend $2,000.
"We're expecting another record-breaking holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play a major role as it always has," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a news release. "Nonetheless, consumers are starting earlier than ever to be sure they can get what they want, when they want it, at a price they want to pay. Black Friday stopped being a one-day event years ago, and this year some consumers started shopping for Christmas as early as Halloween."
So with so many people expected to shop this Thanksgiving weekend and the holiday season, what are people buying?
According to NRF, clothing tops the list, followed by gift cards, toys, books, music, movies, video games, and food and candy.
"All the usuals are consistent this year; electronics, apparel, toys, etc," Engstrom, the college professor, said. "But two areas are trending strong this year: home and experiences."
Engstrom said as people continue to work at home, they want to improve their home environment and space.
"Bedding, lamps, rugs, picture frames, anything to improve the aesthetics of the home is popular," she said.
Experiences, though, are what Engstrom expects to be the must-have gift this holiday season.
"Experiences were off the list due to the pandemic and are now back, with 57% of consumers planning to purchase an experience or intangible gift," she said. "As consumers are more comfortable venturing out in post-pandemic times, the idea of giving gifts of experience is greatly on the rise. Gatherings are back, and missing opportunities in the past year and a half have brought the idea of gifting togetherness.
Expect gifts of experiences such as spa visits, football game tickets, other sporting events, concerts, museums, gym memberships, and adventurous outings such as hot-air balloon rides and skydiving under the Christmas tree.
"Look for gift-givers to include themselves in the experiences as consumers want to spend time together with their loved one," she said.