Abortion has been top of mind for many voters since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. Many political analysts believe backlash to the Supreme Court’s helped tamper Republican gains in mid-term elections later that year. Now political strategists are closely watching Ohio’s Issue 1 with an eye toward the 2024 presidential election.
Issue 1 is a voter referendum on a constitutional amendment that would ensure every person has the right to make and carry out their own reproductive decisions, including contraception, fertility treatment, pregnancy, miscarriage care and abortion. The state’s current law banning abortions after viability, or about 22 weeks, would remain unless the pregnant woman’s life or health was at risk.
The issue is attracting both interest and funds from around the country. According to campaign finance filings, Issue 1 supporters raised nearly $29 million since Sept. 8, while opponents raised nearly $10 million. The largest donations for both sides came from out-of-state groups.
National figures have been weighing in on the amendment, largely along party lines.
Republicans argue the language in Issue 1 could be interpreted to further loosen abortion laws.
“Maybe you think that if a teenager is getting an abortion, she should have to have sign off from her mother, or maybe you should have a right to an abortion, but not after 12 weeks, not after 15 weeks when the baby can feel pain,” said Sen. J.D. Vance. “This amendment takes that right away from Ohioans.”
The amendment does not address parental consent for minors, which is currently required in Ohio with the exception of a court-approved judicial bypass. However, the amendment’s wording would grant abortion rights to any “individual,” which legal experts said could potentially be extended to children.
Democrats counter that not passing Issue 1 could result in the state legislature passing a near-total ban on abortions.
Former President Barack Obama urged Ohioans to vote yes on Issue 1 on X, formerly known as Twitter, “if you want to protect abortion rights by making them part of your state Constitution.”
The outcome of the referendum could affect how presidential candidates word their stances on abortion in next year’s election.
“Whether the issue comes out on my side or on the other side, I think that Ohio will be predictive of how this debate unfolds over the next 12 months,” Vance said.
Voter turnout will be an important indicator of how strongly people care about the issue. Off-year elections usually see few voters, but Issue 1 is expected to draw higher turnout.