Young Americans favor Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump by a wide margin, 60% to 32%, but whether they vote may come down to peer influence.

A new Harvard Youth Poll released Friday finds that 79% of voters under the age of 30 are likely to vote if their friends do too, but turnout shrinks to 35% when they think their friends won’t show up at the polls.

What You Need To Know

  • Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads GOP candidate Donald Trump among youth voters 60% to 32%, according to a new Harvard Youth Poll

  • 79% of voters under the age of 30 are likely to vote if their friends do too, but turnout shrinks to 35% when they think their friends won't show up at the polls

  • Harris' support is strongest among young women, where she has a 30-point lead against Trump; support among young Black women is even stronger

  • Her lead against Trump among young voters shrinks to 9% across the seven key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
 

“The social dynamic of youth voting has never been more clear: when young Americans believe their friends will vote, they’re nearly two and a half times more likely to cast a ballot themselves,” Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics Polling Director John Della Volpe said in a statement. 

“It’s peer influence, not just politics, that could determine youth turnout this year — and ultimately who becomes the next president.

There are about 52.6 million people between the ages of 18 and 29 in the United States, who make up almost 16% of the population. In 2020, about half of young voters cast ballots.

Conducted October 3-14 among 2,001 American between 18 and 29 years old nationwide, the poll found Harris’ support is strongest among young women, where she has a 30-point lead against Trump. The gender gap among registered young voters has more than doubled since Spring 2024 when Biden was the nominee, especially among women of color, 70% of whom favor Harris — up from 36% when Biden was the Democratic candidate.

Younger males who support Trump are less likely to vote. The poll found 59% of Trump supporters said they will definitely vote compared with 71% of Harris supporters.

Harris also has a 34-point lead in states that President Joe Biden won in 2020 but is only up by 10 points in the states Trump won in the last election.

Harris’ lead against Trump among young voters shrinks to 9% across the seven key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll found 4% of young voters support third-party candidates, and 6% are undecided.

Harris is strongest on abortion rights and strengthening the working class, according to young voters. Trump is perceived as stronger on the Israel-Hamas war among registered young voters.

Young voters see Harris as more empathic, relatable, honest, competent, strong and having a sense of humor compared with Trump, who is seen as more patriotic.

A majority of voters under the age of 30 said they will definitely vote or have already cast their ballot. Half of young voters plan to cast their ballots in person on Election Day this year compared with 37% in 2020. About a third plan to vote absentee and 12% plan to vote early.

Only one in five young Americans have confidence in a peaceful transfer of power once the winner is determined, regardless of whether it’s Harris or Trump. About a third don’t know if there will be a peaceful transfer.

Another one in five said they don’t expect a peaceful transfer regardless of who wins, with 14% expecting peace only if Harris wins and 10% expecting peace only if Trump is reelected.