Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley is now in second place in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary, giving the candidate a crucial boost in the early voting state as she aims to be a viable alternative to the frontrunner, former President Donald Trump.
Emerson College Polling found support for Haley has surged since August, when she was polling in the low single digits. She now has 18% of voters’ support, according to a new poll released Wednesday, second only to Trump, who is leading with 49% support.
Rounding out the top five are former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with 9%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 7% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 5%. Nine percent of voters remain undecided.
“Nikki Haley’s support is driven by older voters, and those with postgraduate degrees,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said in a statement. “While Trump leads across all age groups, Haley gets 21% of the vote from voters over 40 while getting about 8% from voters under 40.”
Among non-college-educated voters, Trump leads with 57% compared with Haley at 12%. Among college-educated GOP voters, the margin narrows, with 35% supporting Trump and 27% supporting Haley. It narrows even further among voters with postgraduate degrees, with 29% supporting Trump and 26% supporting Haley.
Poll respondents also ranked their second-choice candidates: DeSantis led with 22%, followed by Haley with 18% and 15% for Ramaswamy.
Democratic voters in the new poll were less settled. In the Democratic Primary, 44% of voters are undecided. President Joe Biden will not be on the New Hampshire primary ballot because of a dispute with the Democratic National Committee about which state should hold the first vote. Still 27% of voters plan to write in Biden on their ballots.
“As Biden is not officially on the ballot in New Hampshire, Democratic Primary voters appear to be confused on which candidate to support and how to vote for them,” Kimball said.
Fifteen percent of Democratic Primary voters plan to vote for U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., who declared his run for the presidency in late October. Ten percent said they will vote for Marianne Williamson.
Biden leads Trump 47% to 42% in a hypothetical presidential matchup in the state, according to the new poll; 12% are undecided.
Four out of five Trump voters said they will still vote for him even if he is convicted in a criminal trial; 5% said they would not, and 15% said they were unsure.
In a hypothetical match expanded to include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and third-party candidate Cornell West, Biden has 40% support, followed by Trump at 37%, Kennedy at 8% and West with 1%. Fourteen percent were undecided.
The poll found that Kennedy’s support pulls equally from Trump and Biden. With Kennedy on the ballot, 6% of both Biden and Trump voters switch to support Kennedy.
“Kennedy voters are significantly less locked in than Biden and Trump voters,” Kimball said. “Majorities of Biden and Trump voters, 66% and 68%, say they will definitely vote for the candidate they chose, whereas 75% of Kennedy voters say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else.”
If Haley were to win the GOP primary and compete against Biden in the General Election, Haley leads with 45% of the vote compared with 39% for Biden and 17% undecided. If DeSantis were to win the GOP primary, Biden leads with 46% of the vote compared with 38% for DeSantis and 17% undecided.