OXFORD, Mass. - When Geoffrey Esper takes the stage at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, he knows the first-place prize is a long shot.

"I feel pretty good," said Esper. "Joey's numbers are up there like every year he does it, really big numbers. I don't think I'll be able to beat him. But the second place this year I think is going to be pretty competitive."

Joey, as in Joey Chestnut, the 15-time winner and the world record holder.

Esper, an Oxford native, has finished second behind Chestnut at the competition the last two years. He’s hungry to break his personal record.

"I did 50 at my qualifier earlier this year," Esper said. "My best at a qualifier is 51. So I'd like to get anything over 51, which I should be able to do."

Leading up to the fourth, Esper’s been practicing.

"We set up five to a plate," he said. "I'll set up 50, 55, sometimes 60, and I'll do a 10-minute run."

Esper is the world’s number two ranked competitive eater, and holds other food challenge titles. He competed in a strawberry shortcake eating contest, and also set the official record at George's Coney Island, gobbling 50 hot dogs.

He says there's a lot of factors outside of stomach capacity which come into play when competing on the biggest stage of professional eating.

"When you get out there at Coney, sometimes those things are sitting out there for like 45 minutes in the baking sun," he said. "The buns are all crunchy and stale and the hot dogs, they're the natural casing hot dogs, the skin -- the casing gets real leathery."

Sun may not be an issue this year. And for Esper, some rain might help the hot dogs go down faster. He actually welcomes it.

"It was chicken spiedie sandwiches, and it was outside right next to a horse racing track," said Esper. "It was a really severe thunderstorm that started, and it was pouring rain. I had a really good day."

Although competitive, in this case, Esper is optimistic about second place.

"Yeah if I have a good day, it should be no problem getting it," Esper said. "But you know, if you don't have that good day, it will be close."