WORCESTER, Mass. - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said this week that the country should expect a recession to take hold the second half of the year.

"They have a recession beginning in the third quarter, fourth quarter and first quarter, and then back to recovery," Moynihan said of the findings by the bank’s research team. "But it's a very mild recession."

The leader of the country's second-largest bank, which is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, said recent inflation has caused slowdown in spending. But he said consumer activity is still strong nationwide, which should help lessen the severity of a recession.

"They have money in their accounts because the stimulus is still being spent," Moynihan said. "They're spending on things, services, which causes more people to be employed in this country. And so the consumer’s in pretty good shape. They have borrowing capacity. Now, rates are up and making borrowing more expensive, but the consumers in good shape, so the Fed's fighting that consumer."

Moynihan was interviewed during his visit in Worcester Monday to speak and answer questions from the Worcester Economic Club, a civic group. 

More than three years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moynihan said the economy has, in fact, rebounded. He said it's roughly 30% bigger than it was pre-pandemic, and the amount of money deposited in bank accounts has grown at a similar rate. 

"Everything grew nominally, so that's good news," he said. "The spending levels are higher. First quarter over first quarter, our spending levels were up 8%. They slowed a little in April. That's consistent with the Fed slowing down the economy. It's still very healthy, consistent with a growing economy."

Moynihan, who also is chairman of the board, expects the Fed, which raised interest rates again Wednesday, wouldn’t start lowering rates until the second quarter of next year. His advice to the everyday American: keep working and save some money.

He said if a recession is mild, he’s optimistic unemployment will not rise sharply because the current rate of 3.6% is lower than usual.

Moynihan said the great debate among the economic circles right now is just how severe of a recession the country will experience. 

When asked about recent bank failures, Moynihan said the good news is that there is precedence for situations like this. 

"The process is well-known,” he said. “There have been 1,500 banks or something that failed since the mid-‘80s. We went through this in New England in a big way in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. The banks fail, the shareholders are separated from the company, the bond holders are separated from the company, and then somebody buys the bank."