LOUISVILLE, Ky. — In a hefty win for Kentucky Democrats, Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., garnered support from both sides of the political aisle to secure a reelection victory, including in Eastern Kentucky.
In places like Knott and Perry counties, Gov. Beshear beat Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron by at least 10%. These areas have been red for the last few elections. However, these are also the areas hit hard in 2020 by widespread flooding. In the year since, the governor has touted several projects in the region to rebuild, including many housing developments outside of flood zones.
Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, explains why these areas chose Beshear.
“The role he played in that job in getting aid to the flood-impacted counties in southeastern Kentucky. If you look at what Beshear did and compare it to what he sort of should have done as a generic Democrat based on statistical modeling, all of the biggest Beshear over-performance numbers are coming from those flood-impacted counties in eastern Kentucky,” Voss said. “Beshear’s performance there was just off the charts compared to other Democrats in the past.”
Along the West Virginia and Tennessee borders, areas not as affected by the floods went for Cameron. As did the Western Kentucky counties affected in 2021 by deadly tornadoes. Still, across the state, Beshear picked up gains in many areas that have previously voted Republican.
Voss says the way Beshear ran his campaign messaging helped secure his victory.
“Most politics these days is campaigning against, not campaigning for, and more and more voters are motivated more by stopping or blocking the other party than they are by supporting their own,” Voss said. “But Beshear was trying to win as a Democrat in a very Republican state. He needed to have reasons for voters to feel like they were voting for something for him, and he gave enough. A lot of those swing voters tilted his way, voting for something instead of just against the wicked other party that they usually oppose.”
As for motivating voters to take part in a non-presidential election, Voss says abortion was a factor. He explains before Roe v Wade was overturned; the issue motivated Republicans. However, since Dobbs, restoring abortion access has helped Democrats. Voss says other social issues did not get Republicans to the polls either.
“Republicans tried to do with wokeness and trans issues what they used to be able to do with abortion, you know, sort of the same culture war playbook, but different issues,” Voss said. “The problem is, at least so far, neither wokeness as an abstraction nor trans issues have the immediacy and the engagement potential that abortion has had since, I mean, since the seventies, since Roe v Wade was initially issued.”
The next hurdle for Beshear will be his big campaign promises, such as universal pre-k and teacher pay raises, passed by the Republican-led state house and senate.