FLORENCE, Ky. — From 2021 to 2022, there were more deaths than there were births in most Kentucky counties.
Spectrum News 1 spoke to a data collector who said he was surprised, but not overly concerned. He also explained the factors that play into some counties having natural population increase.
Many people, once they hit a certain age, can’t seem to avoid getting bombarded with that question.
“When are you going to have kids?”
Childless Burlington resident Devin Reinert, however, has somehow managed to fly mostly under the radar.
“I can’t say I feel that pressure personally. Cousins and friends here and there might bring it up every now and again, but definitely not a pressing issue,” Reinert said.
He may actually be somewhat of a standout in Boone County, where he lives.
Boone County is one of 13 Kentucky counties that had a natural population increase (meaning births outnumbered deaths) between 2021 and 2022, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The University of Louisville Kentucky State Data Center tweeted a map of the difference in counties, saying it was evidence of ongoing effects from the pandemic, continued declines in birthrates, and population aging.
“It seems like there’s less growth than I would have expected. Although, this is very cyclical. It has everything to do with the age distribution of the counties. And of course the pandemic,” said Matt Ruther, Director of the UofL KSDC.
“Certainly, counties with younger populations are going to be a little better off. So I think that’s what you’re seeing in Fayette and Warren, particularly from the college age populations there. All the growth in Kenton County is happening in the south around Independence. You do see slightly higher fertility rates in these more suburban counties,” he explained.
Ruther, who is also a professor of Urban and Public Affairs, said this is a trend around the country, not just in Kentucky.
Reinert said he wasn’t surprised to hear birthrates were lower. He was, however, a little surprised at Boone County’s growth.
“I’m not going to be contributing to the solution in that regard really any time soon. I do want kids, but I’m not in the right position to have them yet. And it definitely depends on the partner and all of that,” he said.
As for the counties with the highest discrepancies of deaths over births, as was the case for much of eastern Kentucky, Ruther said there is a simple explanation.
“They’re just really old populations. More of the younger people have moved to other areas. So you’re left with this sort of population bulge at the older ages. It’s not uncommon to see this type of thing,” Ruther said.
“We’re just having a big number of deaths. Although the actual mortality rates aren’t necessarily higher than they used to be. It’s just that there’s more people in those age groups. And so once that age group, in 20, 25 years, that sort of hump in the population is gone, we’ll probably see something look a little different here, maybe sort of flattened out so that births and deaths are more equal,” she explained.
In the meantime, Ruther said social support systems, such as the staff at local restaurants, are going to be put to task.
“And the workers are not being replaced with the younger generations. So, say you have 1,000 people going out of the workforce, but you have 800 coming in. I don’t think you need to over-hype it like this is the end of the world," Ruther said. "These are just... these are big social changes. In the United States, we can’t force people to have babies, right?”
That’s certainly true for Reinert.
“I don’t know if I want to bring children into this society and world we’re currently in. Definitely a lot of thoughts and feelings around that as well. So I kind of have to do some reflection,” he said.
On a lighter note, despite having more deaths than births, there was still overall population growth in much of the state in the same time frame, meaning people are moving to Kentucky.
The UofLK SDC tweeted: “New population estimates from the US census bureau show that Kentucky’s population increased by 5,721 between 2021 and 2022. Warren Co eclipsed Boone Co to become the state’s 4th most populous and Madison Co slid past Campbell Co to become the state’s 8th most populous.”
According to the center, nearly 15,000 more residents moved into the Commonwealth last year than moved out. About 70% were from other states, and the other 30% were from other countries. Ruther said he believes, at some point, international migration to Kentucky is going to be a primary factor behind the state’s population growth.