LEXINGTON, Ky. – Republican incumbent President of the United States Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden in Kentucky, according to the Mason-Dixon Kentucky Poll released Oct. 20. 

Statewide, 56% of likely voters support Trump and 39% back Biden. While the 17-point margin is wide, it is much lower than the 30 points Trump carried the state by in 2016. Four percent of people polled said they are undecided.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, of Jacksonville, Florida, has conducted a poll in Kentucky every election cycle since 1987. This year’s poll took place from Oct. 12-15 and a total of 625 registered Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Kentucky voter registration list that included both landline and cellphone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.

The margin for error is no more than +/-4 percentage points, meaning there is a 95 percent probability the actual number would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

Trump leads in most of the state and among all but a few groups. Biden leads in the Louisville Metro area (55%-41%), among registered Democrats (67%-31%) and with voters under the age of 35 (53%-39%) only. Trump is strongest in the rural areas of Eastern Kentucky (66%-28%) and Western Kentucky (65%-30%). Trump also leads by a wide margin among men (59%-35) and registered Republicans (88%-5%).

The poll posed the question of whether people recognized the candidates’ names, and 1% of the likely voters polled did not recognize Biden’s name, 1% did not recognize the name of Vice President Mike Pence, and 3% did not recognize the name of Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris. 

Trump was more popular than Biden among women polled (53%-43%).

More Democrats were polled than Republicans (49%-41%) and 60 people (10%) were either independent or did not claim a party affiliation. More women (51%) were polled than men (49%), and more people in the 59-64 age range (30%) than 18-34 (17%), 35-49 (28%), and over 65 (25%). Two people polled refused to disclose their age.

Most people participating in the poll lived in the Louisville metro area (24%) and Western Kentucky (24%). The Louisville metro area includes likely voters in Jefferson, Bullitt, Oldham, Trimble, Henry, Shelby, Spencer, and Nelson counties. The Western Kentucky region includes likely voters in Fulton, Hickman, Carlisle, Ballard, McCracken, Graves, Marshall, Calloway, Livingston, Lyon, Trigg, Crittenden, Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Webster, Union, Henderson, Daviess, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Logan, Butler, Ohio, Hancock, Breckinridge, Meade, Hardin, Grayson, Edmonson, Warren, Simpson, Allen, Barren, Hart, and LaRue counties.

Likely voters in the Lexington/Bluegrass region of Fayette, Woodford, Franklin, Anderson, Scott, Harrison, Bourbon, Nicholas, Clark, Madison, Montgomery, Garrard, Jessamine, Boyle, Mercer, Washington, Marion, Powell, and Estill counties comprised 18% of people polled and 12% were from the Northern Kentucky region of Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Gallatin, Carroll, Owen, Grant, Pendleton, Bracken, and Robertson counties.

The largest area polled geographically was the Eastern Kentucky region, where 140 likely voters (22%) in Jackson, Rockcastle, Lincoln, Casey, Taylor, Green, Metcalfe, Adair, Russell, Cumberland, Clinton, Wayne, McCreary, Whitley, Laurel, Pulaski, Monroe, Mason, Fleming, Bath, Menifee, Wolfe, Breathitt, Perry, Leslie, Harlan, Bell, Knox, Clay, Owsley, Lee, Letcher, Knott, Pike, Floyd, Martin, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan, Rowan, Elliott, Lewis, Carter, Greenup, Boyd, and Lawrence counties participated.