LOUISVILLE, Ky. — When the polls close and the ballots are counted, we know the winners and losers of an election, but not much else. Who showed up to vote? What were they thinking when they cast their ballot? And what does that tell us about our community?
This year, we turn to AP VoteCast for answers. An expansive poll of the American electorate, VoteCast spoke to thousands of Kentuckians starting a week ago and ending as polls closed across the commonwealth. Here’s some of what the survey showed us.
In a year that has seen youth turnout surge nationally, young voters in Kentucky did not make much of a splash. Voters under 25 accounted for just 6% of the electorate. That’s down from 2016, when they made up nearly 8%.
Meanwhile, people over 45 accounted for more than two-thirds of all voters. More than a quarter of all Kentucky voters were 65 or older.
Young Kentuckians again bucked the national trend, voting for Trump over Biden by a 50 to 44 margin. It was the narrowest margin among any age group in the state. Voters aged 30 to 64 went for Trump by a 34 to 64 margin and those above 65 gave him a slightly smaller victory at 62 to 37.
Sen. Mitch McConnell nearly carried every age group as well, but the Senate Majority Leader did lose younger voters on his path to re-election. Forty-eight percent of voters 29 and younger voted for Amy McGrath, compared to 40% for McConnell. A majority of all other age groups chose to send McConnell back to Washington for a seventh six-year term.
Asked about the state’s most important issue as they cast their ballot this year, a plurality of voters — 39% — named the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Thirty-one percent said the economy.
Health care was the third most popular issue with 9% of voters naming it the most important. Abortion, law enforcement, and racism were all tied at 5%.
Regarding the pandemic, the survey revealed how closely it has touched Kentuckians, with 33% saying they, or someone in their household has lost a job during this crisis. More than half — 53% — missed out on a major event, such as a wedding or a funeral. And 16% said a friend or family member has died from COVID-19.
Over the past few months, the issue became a big part of Joe Biden’s campaign. He had ads showing drone footage of empty football stadiums and made a point of running his campaign events with more social distancing than President Trump’s.
VoteCast data makes it clear that the message did not resonate in Kentucky, with 48% saying Trump is better equipped to handle the pandemic going forward and 36% saying Biden is.
While Kentuckians voted overwhelmingly in favor of Trump and McConnell, they were evenly split on a couple of other key questions. Fifty-one percent said the country’s economy is either excellent, or good and 49% said it’s not so good or poor.
That’s more optimistic than the country as a whole. Only 41% of Americans said the economy is excellent or good.
On the question of whether the United States is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction, Kentuckians were evenly split, with 50% on one side and 50% on the other.
One of the only demographics in Kentucky to swing in favor of Democrats was Black voters, with 84% voting for Biden and 85% voting for McGrath. That leaves 15% of Black Kentuckians who voted for Trump and 13% who voted for McConnell.
That overwhelming support for Democrats came from a small slice of the electorate though. The survey found that white voters outnumbered Black voters in Kentucky nearly 13 to 1.