With five days to go until Election Day, a new Gallup survey finds that more than half of registered voters (54%) have either already voted or plan to vote before Nov. 5.
Based on a poll conducted from Oct. 14-27, Gallup found 20% of respondents had already voted and another 34% planned to do so before Election Day — similar to other recent elections where voters cast their ballots closer to the deadline.
Almost 61 million people have already voted, according to the latest tally from the University of Florida Election Lab, as of Thursday morning. That’s about 40% of the total number of ballots cast in 2020, when 154 million Americans voted. For the 2020 election, which took place during COVID, 64% of voters cast their ballots by absentee or mail-in ballot.
This year, fewer voters are expected to vote absentee compared with the 2020 election, which took place during the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic, Gallup said. More people are likely to cast their ballots in person.
Democratic voters are significantly more likely to vote early compared to Republicans, with 63% of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they have already voted or plan to vote before Election Day compared with 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
The early-voting gap between Democrats and Republicans is similar to 2020, Gallup said.
Regardless of when and how they plan to vote, enthusiasm is high. Seventy percent of registered voters polled say they are more enthusiastic than normal about voting — up from 56% who said so in March. The poll attributed the increase to Vice President Kamala Harris replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.
The Harris campaign has reached more registered voters (42%) than the Trump campaign (35%). The Harris campaign has reached 58% of Democrat and Democrat-leaning independents compared with the Trump campaign, which has reached 40% of Republican and Republican leaners.
Enthusiasm is higher among Democrats (77%) than Republicans (67%) and is similar to 2020, Gallup found.
How that enthusiasm translates into presidential outcomes is mixed. Gallup said Democratic enthusiasm in 2008 and 2020 preceded party wins for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. But in 2012, when Republicans had the enthusiasm advantage, GOP candidate Mitt Romney lost.