Fewer homes have changed hands this year than at any point during the last three decades, according to a new analysis from the real estate website Redfin. 

What You Need To Know

  • Just 2.5% of homes were sold to another owner through the first eight months of 2024, according to a new Redfin analysis

  • It's the lowest rate of home turnover in 30 years

  • High mortgage rates, rising home prices, a low supply of homes and uncertainty about the economy and the political climate are stopping people from buying and selling homes

  • Los Angeles had the lowest level of home turnover this year among major metro areas; Phoenix had the highest

Just 2.5% of homes were sold to another owner through the first eight months of 2024 — a 30% decline compared with 2019.

“Of the homes listed this year, many have gone stale because of the lack of demand — especially homes which needed a little extra work,” Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa said in a statement. “With the majority of homeowners locked into low mortgages, rates will need to keep falling consistently for many to feel comfortable moving on from the deals they secured years ago.”

The analysis attributed the decades-low change of homeownership to high mortgage rates, rising home prices, a low supply of homes and uncertainty about the economy, as well as the political climate.

Current mortgage rates are around 6% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, but 75% of homes have mortgages of less than 5%.

Home prices in many of the parts of the country also hit record highs this year. The median price of a new house sold in August was $420,600, according to the U.S. Census. 

Home listings through the first eight months of 2024 also fell to their lowest level since 2012. Out of 1,000 U.S. homes, 3.2% were listed for sale between January and August. That’s down from 4.6% prior to the pandemic and from 4.5% during the pandemic-inspired home-buying frenzy of 2021.

Los Angeles had the lowest level of home turnover this year among major metro areas. Boston, San Francisco, Oakland, California, and Anaheim, California, rounded out the top five. Phoenix had the highest level of home turnover, followed by Newark, New Jersey; Nashville, Tennessee; Tampa, Florida; and Nassau County, New York.

While the economy is in solid shape, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point earlier this month, following weakening in the jobs market. Redfin said many sellers and buyers are taking a wait-and-see attitude to see how the economy evolves and who wins this November’s election.