HOLLYWOOD, Calif. — Like every other awards show this year, COVID is shaking up Hollywood’s biggest night. Not only will the 93rd Academy Awards take place at Union Station for the first time this year, it’s likely to be the lowest-rated Oscars ever.

“It will be like watching a sporting event with no particular team to cheer for,” said Sandro Monetti. The author of “Confessions of a Hollywood Insider,” Monetti has covered the Oscars for the past 10 years and will do so again for BBC Radio 5 Live this Sunday.

With most movie theaters closed for the past year, few people have seen the nominated films, he said. And those who sought them out had to navigate a host of distribution platforms. Monetti, however, has seen them all and has some informed predictions, and possible upsets, for who will be taking home the gold statues. 

Nominees: “The Father,” ”Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank,” “Minari,” “Nomadland,”  “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”

Sandro's Prediction: The big winner this year will be “Nomadland,” and here’s why. It’s a perfect film for our times, as it’s about isolation, loss, economic hardship and uncertainty over the future. Who can’t relate to that? I also think it’s director and writer Chloé Zhao who will emerge with the Oscar that symbolizes her arrival to the big stage as a filmmaker to be reckoned with for years to come. What she's done in an intimate, quiet and soulful movie is somehow transfer the mood of the times to the movie of the year. And I really think that it’ll hold on to its lead from awards season and take the best picture prize.

Possible Upset: “The Trial of the Chicago 7” is the only one that can stop “Nomadland” from winning. This Aaron Sorkin movie was my personal favorite of this year, but it’s fascinating that it struggled to gain a foothold in the long climb to the awards summit. I have a terrible fear that it could be one of the many great Oscar-nominated films in history to go home completely empty handed. 

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”), Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”), Gary Oldman (“Mank”) and Steven Yeun (“Minari”).

Sandro's Prediction: It’s really hard to bet against the late, great Chadwick Boseman. When he wins, it will be bittersweet for many reasons, not least the many more great performances we could have seen from this actor who leaves a remarkable legacy. 

Possible Upset: Anthony Hopkins for “The Father.” This is a category that Chadwick Boseman has been dominating until the BAFTAs when Anthony Hopkins was so surprised by his victory he didn’t even turn on his Zoom. He just appeared at the virtual press conference afterwards. Anthony Hopkins at 83 would be the oldest winner ever for best actor. His work in “The Father” is his best work since “Remains of the Day” in 1994. For my money, that’s the greatest acting performance of the last four decades, and that was not recognized with an Oscar. In “The Father,” as a man suffering from Alzheimer's, this is his best work since.

Nominees: Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”), Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”), Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) and Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”). 

Sandro's Prediction: Anyone who says they know who’s going to win, don’t trust them. It’s a total toss-up. All five are great performances. This is the first time in the two decades I’ve been covering awards races where the prizes have all been split equally between the contenders. There is no frontrunner here. Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan and Andra Day have all won. Vanessa Kirby hasn’t won anything, so if you believe in the law of averages, it’s her turn. I don’t believe in the law of averages. I look for other indicators. And 8 out of the last 10 years the winner of the Screen Actors Guild awards for best actress has gone on to win the Oscar as well. That is a very large voting group within the Academy who has a lot of members within SAG, so my prediction here is Viola Davis to win.

Possible Upset: If there’s even more love for “Nomadland,” Frances McDormand. But you can’t count out Carey Mulligan or Andra Day, and even Vanessa Kirby might have a shot. It’s the hardest to predict category. That’s good because suspense has been missing from the Oscars for many years now where everybody knows who's going to win, so that’s one category where we await with interest. It could be anyone.

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”), Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami”), Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) and Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”).

Sandro's Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya for “Judas and the Black Messiah.” Even though his talents were well known in his native Britain, he really emerged as a Hollywood star through “Get Out” and has built on that potential and has really dominated this category during awards season.

Possible Upset: Kaluuya’s closest rival is a fellow Brit: Sacha Baron Cohen. Few people in recent years have had a career with the versatility of Sasha. He can make a comedy like the “Borat” sequel and a drama like “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and be excellent in both of them. So if he causes an upset here, it will be almost as much the Academy’s admiration of what he’s done with “Borat” as “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”), Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”), Olivia Colman (“The Father”), Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) and Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”).

Sandro's Prediction: There’s no Meryl Streep nominated here, but we have the Meryl of Korea, Yuh-Jung Youn. I think she will win for “Minari,” and if she does, it might be the best acceptance speech of the night. I loved it when she won at the BAFTAs and said she was surprised to get an award from the Brits because they’re so snobbish. If she says that about the Brits, what will she say about the Americans?

Possible Upset: It could be a surprise for Maria Bakalova, who played Borat’s daughter. She’s a fantastic rising star from Romania, and she really represents so much of what this year’s Oscars nominations are about. A lot has been said about diversity in the nominations, 9 out of the 20 nominees being people of color. When we talk about diversity, we should also talk about new talent. There's a real opportunity here for rising stars, new faces. This is a very different year when it comes to the Oscars. We’re used to seeing the same old faces nominated year after year, but in this very different year, we’ve got a very different lineup. That’s wonderful to see. Careers are made and new stars are launched on Oscar night.

Nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”), David Fincher (“Mank”), Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”), Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) and Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”).

Sandro's Prediction: Rather than the usual suspects, we’ll be talking about new names like Chloé Zhao. The industry has recognized her talent already. She's gone from directing the $5 million dollar “Nomadland” to the $200 million next Marvel movie, “Eternals,” so it’ll be interesting to see how she can bring that sensibility to the big canvas.

Possible Upset: Chloé Zhao’s strongest competition in the category is Emerald Fennell. She’s another huge rising star who directed “Promising Young Woman.” My thought here is that Chloé gets the director prize, but I do think that Emerald will win in best original screenplay for her script to “Promising Young Woman.” It’s the ultimate revenge story, and another movie for our times.