MADISON, Wis. — Top pollsters and analysts from across the country gathered in Madison for the annual WisPolitics Polling Summit on Tuesday to share their insights about the biggest issues and trends ahead of the November election.
Unsurprisingly, all of them agree about the top three issues: The economy, immigration and abortion. However, when it comes to which way undecided voters could break, there is far less certainty.
For Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin, the odds favor Republicans.
“About 66% probably for Trump, about 33% probably for Harris, so the undecideds are kind of a Trump-leaning group in the end,” Franklin said.
Other experts, including Jocelyn Kiley, who is the senior associate director of research at Pew Research, feel as though it is less clear cut.
“But then, one group of undecideds shows up more than the other group, and then you find, well, undecideds broke in that direction," Kiley explained. "Just be aware when we are talking about these kinds of dynamics, it’s not always like the polls told you this story and ... ‘that wasn’t right,’ because there is this underlying dynamic of not everyone shows up."
Another group that garnered attention was Black voters, men in particular, especially as former President Barack Obama hits the campaign trail. With an appearance scheduled for Wisconsin next week, some pollsters cautioned it’s unfair to expect Obama-level turnout this year.
“I’m just saying this cynically, like every election cycle, Black men get jumped on a little bit when it comes to Democratic discourse about what Democrats are trying to get out of Black voters,” Ray Block, a senior political scientist at RAND, told the audience.
Though the professional opinions varied on Tuesday, there was one thing everybody agreed on: No matter the numbers, expect polls to be a horse race until Election Day.
“This election is going to be decided by the person who only watches the Super Bowl, and only watches the ads in the Super Bowl, and before they go to the party, asks who’s playing so they know what the correct costume is to wear because they don’t even know it’s called a uniform,” Ken Goldstein, a pollster with the Association of American Universities, said.
A new national Marquette Law School poll will be released Wednesday, which will provide the latest insight as to just how tight the race is, as well as how enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans and independents varies.