WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris holds a one-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday.
Among likely voters, Harris gets 50% of the vote to Trump’s 49%, a statistical tie given the margin of error. A Marquette Law School poll in September had Harris at 52% and Trump at 48%.
“It should not surprise anyone if Donald Trump wins, and it should not surprise anyone if Kamala Harris wins,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll.
Franklin said 5% of likely voters are undecided when not forced to choose between Harris and Trump.
“In 2016, we saw people who said they decided in the last week of the campaign give about 60% of their votes for Trump,” Franklin said. “In 2020, those late deciders broke for Biden at the end. So, it's very hard to know what will move undecided voters at the end of the campaign.”
And when third party candidates are included, like Robert F. Kennedy Jr, 9% of likely voters are choosing a candidate other than the two of them.
“So, I think one of the serious uncertainties is, how many of this nine percent stick with one of these third parties, how many of them choose not to vote, and how many of them decide to vote for either Harris or for Trump in the end?” Franklin asked. “They could so easily tip this race one way or the other.”
The new poll reveals big differences in the preferences of those voting on Election Day, early in-person, or by mail.
Seventy percent of Wisconsin voters who are casting an early mail-in ballot pick Harris, compared to 30% for Trump. Of those voting in-person early, Trump gets 52% to 47% for Harris. And for those waiting until election day to vote, Trump gets 56% of the vote, Harris gets 44%.
“This opens the door to expecting an Election Day vote tally that probably favors Trump, but to see that start to reverse as the absentee ballots are counted. How it balances out could go either way,” Franklin said.
The economy remains the most important issue in Wisconsin, followed by abortion. Voters prefer Trump on the economy and Harris on abortion.
"I think that what we're seeing across these issues is Harris has advantages on several issues that don't rise to the top of the list of importance," Franklin said. "Trump has advantages on some, but where Trump is advantaged is on the economy number one, because that is 38 percent of voters picking that as their most important issue."
In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin gets 51% of the vote among likely voters to 49% for Republican businessman Eric Hovde.
“When we look at the undecideds in the race, there are seven percent undecided, and it's a three-point Baldwin lead, so a little bit bigger with undecideds. Undecideds are slightly leaning to Hovde, bringing the margin a little tighter when we push them to choose a candidate,” Franklin said.
Past Marquette polls have shown Baldwin with a bigger lead, but now it reflects her campaign's internal polling, which has shown the race is getting closer.
“The connection between the presidential and the Senate race is fairly tight, and if Trump were to win by several percentage points, that would be a real challenge for Baldwin.”
Pollsters interviewed 753 likely Wisconsin voters from Oct. 16 to 24. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.