WASHINGTON — Charles Franklin started his presentation on the latest Marquette Law School poll on Wednesday with a quip that made the crowd laugh: “You’ll be shocked to know it’s a close race.”
Franklin is the director of the poll, and unsurprisingly, the new data shows the presidential race in Wisconsin will be another thriller. It found both President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump polling at 50% among registered voters. In the last poll, Trump edged out Biden for first place by two points, but it’s evened out. Biden and Trump are also tied 44 to 44 when undecided voters are thrown in the mix.
“Neither side has taken a clear advantage,” Franklin said in an interview with Spectrum News.
When third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included, Trump edges out Biden by three points. Support for Kennedy has gone down steadily over the last several Marquette polls.
“This is the kind of path we expect to see with third party candidates, as voters start to focus on the two major party candidates, one of whom will surely be elected in November,” Franklin said.
Registered voters who described themselves as very enthusiastic favor Trump, while less excited voters are for Biden. That could be a problem for the incumbent this fall.
“Turnout, or at least people telling us they're certain they're going to vote, goes down as enthusiasm goes down,” Franklin said. “So where this leaves us is a very close race with all registered voters.”
Franklin said this year is unique in that all of the presidential candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably.
"Prior to 2016, that just didn't happen. We almost never had both candidates viewed unfavorably in previous presidential elections," Franklin said. "But this year, both Biden and Trump are substantially underwater with net negative feelings about them. But it also applies to the third party candidates too, so it's not like they are seen in a much more positive light than the Democrat and the Republican. So that's an issue going through the campaign of how to voters look at these candidates. The last thing, of course, is we're going to have a debate, and then we're going to have conventions. And those are opportunities for voters to focus on the presidential race in ways they haven't up until now. Maybe they will shift their opinions, maybe they won't. But especially for the question of enthusiasm and engagement in the election, getting this first debate going is a point at which voters might tune in and become more engaged than they have been up till now."
The Senate race is close. Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde by 5 percentage points, 52 to 47, among registered voters.
“We do see that Hovde is getting better known,” Franklin said. “The percent that say they don't know enough about him to have an opinion fell from 56% two months ago, to about 44%.”
Pollsters interviewed 871 Wisconsin voters between June 12-20. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.