Last week, Donald Trump became the first former president convicted of a crime, found guilty on all 34 counts for falsifying records to cover up hush money payments to a porn star. He’s due back in court for sentencing four days before the Republican National Convention kicks off in Milwaukee.
“The judge has an awful lot of power,” said David Shapiro of the John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
Fines, probation, house arrest, even prison time are all a possibility. Most experts say that given the nature of the crimes in this case, a 78-year-old with no prior felony convictions is unlikely to be sent to jail. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially since Trump violated his gag order multiple times and showed no remorse during or after the trial.
“If Mr. Trump were to come in and flout the respect of the judge and the court and the administration of justice, that might push the judge in a certain direction that Mr. Trump would not find conducive to his participation in the Republican National Convention,” Shapiro said.
“It’s within the judge’s discretion to allow [Trump] to travel to the RNC,” added John Acevedo, a law professor at Emory University. “It’s also in the judge’s discretion, even if he doesn’t get prison time, to say, ‘Probation starting immediately. You can’t travel out of the state of New York,’ which would then cause havoc on his RNC appearance.”
Another law professor argued the judge might delay Trump’s punishment until after the November election, saying keeping Trump from the campaign trail would interfere with some voters’ wishes.
“If the judge were to impose a sentence, the betting is still that he will probably get a non-incarcerated disposition,” said Columbia Law School’s John Coffee. “But I could certainly understand the argument for giving him what I’ll call a taste of prison—one month, two-month kind of sentence—so that we make it clear that no man is above the law ... But you could do that after the Republican Convention, and after the election.”
On Fox News, Trump said he’d be “OK” with house arrest or jail time. His campaign told Spectrum News in a statement that he will accept the Republican nomination “in the same historic fashion that he won the Republican primary.”
For now, we await Judge Juan Merchan to reveal his decision on July 11.
“The only thing that the judge has to consider is whether his sentence would be considered harsh,” Shapiro said. “If it’s considered harsh and not in the interest of justice, his sentence will be overturned. But in the short term, he holds the cards.”
Trump’s legal team could appeal any punishment the judge imposes. The judge could stay the sentence until the appeal is decided, but he doesn’t have to do that. If Trump is sentenced to incarceration, but the penalty is stayed until after the election, it establishes an extraordinary possibility of the winning presidential candidate facing time behind bars.