WASHINGTON — Voters will cast a ballot in six months, and a new poll by Marquette University Law School showed the presidential race in Wisconsin will likely be another nail-biter.
Data found President Joe Biden polling at 49% among polled registered voters, and former president Donald Trump at 51%. Trump edged out Biden for first place, a slight difference from Marquette’s February poll, which showed the candidates in a dead heat, each polling at 49%.
“A two point difference is well inside the margin of error of 4.8 points. So you'd have to call this a toss up,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School poll.
The poll also revealed Trump does better on issues such as immigration, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy and foreign relations. Voters favor Biden over Trump on Medicare and social security, abortion policy and health care.
The race remains tight even when third party candidates are thrown into the mix. With five candidates considered, Robert F. Kennedy was favored by 13% of polled voters, while Jill Stein and Cornel West polled in single digits. In a five-way race, Trump still leads Biden by a small margin, 41% to 40%.
The poll also looked at voter enthusiasm. Only 47% of Wisconsin registered voters polled said they were very excited about voting in November. Four years ago, that number was 20 points higher.
“I think some of this is fatigue with the same two candidates running the race over again,” Franklin said. “But it's also, I think, partisan divisions have driven people to be more disaffected with politics in general.”
The Senate race is closer than some might expect. Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde by 5 percentage points among polled registered voters, 52% to 47%. However when looking at likely voters polled, the candidates were tied, each getting 50% of the vote.
“So there is a long ways to go in this campaign for Eric Hovde to introduce himself to a majority of voters in the state,” Franklin said. “Yet the party that he represents and party polarization being what it is these days, that's a huge boost to a lesser known candidate who can benefit from having Republicans in the state, in this case, find out that he's the Republican against the Democrat Baldwin, and that gives them a lot of guidance.”
Pollsters interviewed 814 Wisconsin voters between April 3-10. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.