MADISON, Wis. — Holiday spending for 2022 is expected to slow down from last year’s boom, even though the shopping season is starting earlier.

What You Need To Know

  • New data from consulting firm Deloitte projects retail spending to jump 4-6% in November, December and January

  • For that same timeframe last year, spending skyrocketed 15.1%

  • Economic conditions were different last year; this year, the U.S. is dealing with higher inflation

New data from consulting firm Deloitte projects retail spending to jump 4-6% in November, December and January.

For that same timeframe last year, spending skyrocketed 15.1%. However, economic conditions were different then. People were buying more durable goods and spending less on experiences, plus had received a stimulus check that year.

Now, we’re dealing with higher inflation. Deloitte predicts consumers will spend less, and gift smaller items to loved ones.

Shawn Phetteplace from Main Street Alliance said that’s small businesses’ time to shine.

“Frankly, the Walmarts and those companies, they're doing better than ever, corporate profits are the highest that they've been in years,” Phetteplace said. “If you are going to reduce spending, making sure to focus those at those main street small businesses that really need the business this year will be really critical.”

The Deloitte forecast also showed consumers may spend more on experiences again, like trips and restaurant gift cards.

That’s welcome news in the restaurant industry, which has been hit especially hard throughout the pandemic. 

“There’s a lot of those restaurants that didn't receive as much support and are going to be having to pay back a lot of debt that they took on during the pandemic,” Phetteplace said. “If you want to keep your local restaurants that you really love in business, and be able to continue to go there in the future, it's gonna be really important to support them this holiday season.”

Meanwhile, the holiday shopping season is starting sooner. A new study from Bankrate shows a quarter of shoppers have already started buying holiday gifts. According to those numbers, 60% of people plan to begin purchasing presents before November even begins.​