MILWAUKEE, Wis. (SPECTRUM NEWS) - The projected peak of hospital usage tied to the coronavirus in Wisconsin hit suddenly on Easter Sunday, but that new projection from the oft-cited IHME model assumes one big thing: that people in the Badger State will continue to keep up with current social distancing policies and procedures through May.

That new model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, a projection model often used by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, also shows the projected death toll by May 9 continues to fall, now down to 357 statewide.

As of Sunday according to statistics from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services and Milwaukee County Health Department, 144 Wisconsinites have died because of complications tied to the coronavirus.

Over the past several weeks, everyone from President Donald Trump to White House Coronavirus Task Force member Dr. Anthony Fauci to Wisconsin Department of Health Services Secretary-designee Andrea Palm has lauded the work those doing their part to socially distance to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.

"Without implementing "Safer at Home" to help flatten the curve," Secretary-designee Palm said during a press conference last month, "the models show we would have 22,000 Wisconsinites who are positive for Covid-19 by April 8 and an estimated 440 to 1,500 deaths."

Following Sunday's projected peak, the numbers of required hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators are projected to begin to drop through the week and into next weekend.

Once again, though, the model depends on Wisconsinites continuing to practice social distancing techniques for another 6 weeks, either on their own or state-mandated, and failure to do so could shift both the projected peak and projected death toll.

Just 5 days ago, the model projected the state's death toll would hit 644, which in itself had been a sharp drop from the 935 projected lives lost lewss than two weeks ago.

In addition to a projected dropping death toll for Wisconsin over the past few weeks, the projected peak has continued to move up thanks to ongoing social distancing efforts, originally projected on May 22 and suddenly projected to this Sunday.

The model highlights the state's "government-mandated social distancing," including Wisconsin's "Safer at Home" order which went into effect on March 25 and the statewide closure of schools on March 18.

Representatives from the IHME have not returned Spectrum News 1's request for comment on whether Tuesday's statewide election with thousands of voters out at the polls could have any impact on the projections.

To see the new model now, click here.