MILWAUKEE (SPECTRUM NEWS) — Over the course of the fall, Wisconsin saw its COVID-19 cases shoot up dramatically as officials warned the state was in crisis.

Recent trends have offered more of a mixed bag. There’s been some relief as case rates have slowed and a life-saving vaccine appears close on the horizon​. Still, health care workers are stretched thin and many Wisconsinites are losing their lives to the virus.

Here, we take a look at some of the current trends in the state’s fight to flatten the curve.

 

Infection rates are down from their extreme fall peaks

Wisconsin’s cases reached alarming heights in mid-November, when the state appeared caught in a startling exponential climb. Since then, the steep upward trend has finally started to turn as cases have dipped slightly in December.

On Friday, the seven-day average for new cases sat at 3,628. That’s significantly lower than one month ago, on Nov. 11, when that average was 5,984. 

 

 

 

Of course, Wisconsin isn’t in the clear: The current average is still much higher than rates over the summer or even earlier in the fall. On Sep. 11 the state was averaging 985 new cases each day; on June 11, that average was just 290 cases per day.

Wisconsin’s statewide case activity — a measure of how many new cases are being added — was at the “very high” tier as of Friday. That’s down from the “critically high” level it was at before, but still, well, very high.

And, while positivity rates have also dropped, they’re well above recommended levels — indicating that some infections are probably not being caught. This week saw positivity rates hover around 30% calculated per person, and around 13% calculated per test, according to preliminary DHS data.

The World Health Organization says that a positivity rate of below 5% is a good benchmark for sufficient testing. If a high percentage of tests are coming back positive, infections may be spreading faster than tests can catch them. 

DHS officials said they were seeing a “concerning” dip in the number of Wisconsinites getting tested since Thanksgiving. Secretary-designee Andrea Palm encouraged residents to get tested if they had any symptoms or possible exposures, and warned that lower case numbers might be partly a product of less testing — not less disease.

“My hope is that we’re seeing fewer positive cases because fewer people are getting infected with COVID-19,” Palm said at a Thursday briefing. “But with our positivity rate as high as it is, we know we are not testing enough people to get an accurate picture of the virus here in Wisconsin.”

 

Deaths are continuing at a rapid pace

We’re still seeing the tragic effects of the fall surge in infections, as many Wisconsinites continue to die of COVID-19 each day. 

The state set a new record for daily deaths on Dec. 1, when 107 deaths were reported. As of Friday, Wisconsin was averaging 52 coronavirus deaths each day — four times as many as the Oct. 11 average.

 

 

 

Overall, the state is getting close to another tragic milestone as total deaths near 4,000. A model from University of Washington researchers predicts that if current trends continue, that number could surpass 5,000 by the end of the year.

Palm said because deaths are a lagging indicator — they tend to follow the same ups and downs as infections, just a few weeks later — the current highs are probably a result of the state’s mid-November peaks. 

“The deaths that we are seeing now, that continued high level on a daily basis, is a result of infections that happened previously,” she said. “What we would hope over time is, if we continue to see our case numbers decline, that lagging indicator of deaths will start to come down.”

Wisconsin isn’t alone in facing serious losses: The death toll across the U.S. has reached new heights this month, setting a grim record Wednesday with 3,124 coronavirus-related deaths reported in 24 hours. 

The mortality rate has declined nationwide since the pandemic’s early days, as providers have learned more about how best to treat patients with COVID-19. But in Wisconsin and beyond, the better treatment hasn’t been enough to offset the fall’s outbreaks.

 

Hospitals have cleared out a bit, but staff are still strained

Hospitalizations across the state have declined since mid-November. But it’s a small relief for Wisconsin’s health systems, which are still stretched thin.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients peaked at 2,277 on Nov. 17. Since then, hospitalizations have trended downward, with 1,448 coronavirus patients in the hospital as of Friday.

Like infections, though, these numbers haven’t fallen to their pre-surge levels yet. Three months ago, there were 326 COVID-19 patients in hospitals across the state, which was roughly consistent with trends over the summer.

Overall, Wisconsin’s hospitals were 84% full as of Friday, compared to 89% last month. The Western and Fox Valley regions in particular have seen more hospital beds open up in recent weeks.

 

 

Even with these downturns, state officials cautioned that Wisconsin’s health care infrastructure remains under major stress. Gov. Tony Evers said at a Thursday briefing that hospitals and health care workers are “being stretched to the limits” as they navigate caring for COVID-19 patients while trying to keep themselves safe.

“All across the state, we’ve heard stories of those in health care doing exceptional work under difficult circumstances — working back-to-back shifts in head-to-toe PPE, going without seeing their families or loved ones so that they can keep working and stay healthy,” Evers said. “But we have to remember our health care heroes are not invincible.”

Almost 16,000 health care workers have been infected with COVID-19 across the state, according to DHS data. 

Evers announced this week that 45 personnel from the U.S. Department of Defense would be deployed to support Wisconsin’s COVID-19 response. The Army and Navy personnel will help care for patients at four Marshfield Medical Center facilities across the state.

 

Where is COVID-19 hitting hardest?

Across the state, 24 counties remain at the “critically high” level of spread, according to DHS analysis. The rest are in the “very high” tier — apart from Waushara County, which is a step below at “high” case activity.

The western half of the state has seen much of this critically high spread in the past two weeks, as well as the southeast region around Milwaukee. Jackson and Crawford counties had the highest levels of spread, with nearly 2,000 cases per 100,000 residents in the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, counties in the Fox Valley and Northeast regions, which had previously driven much of the state’s caseload, have seen their new infection levels decrease.

In terms of age, Wisconsinites between 25 and 34 years old have been seeing the highest numbers of new cases in recent months, with middle-aged groups following close behind. 

But it’s the older adults who are bearing the worst effects of the virus: 79% of coronavirus-related deaths have been in patients 70 years and up.

Nursing homes, assisted living, and other group settings in particular have faced disproportionate death tolls. Residents of long-term care facilities make up just 1% of COVID-19 cases in the state, but 26% of deaths.

It’s because of this high risk level that long-term care residents will get high priority for the COVID-19 vaccine, which will likely be distributed in Wisconsin in the coming weeks.

As vaccine distribution gets underway, though, officials urged Wisconsinites to stay vigilant on other protective measures like wearing masks and social distancing. Most people will still be waiting months to get the shots, and the early batches will be so limited that even high-priority groups won’t all be covered right away.

“We are asking for patience. This is going to take time,” DHS Deputy Secretary Julie Willems Van Dijk said at a Monday briefing. “We’d all love to get our masks off by Valentine’s Day, but that’s not going to happen.”