There are many versions of "I'm dreaming of a white Christmas" but they all start with "I'm dreaming of a white Christmas, just like the ones I used to know". But how many white Christmases have you known? While it's not out of the question to wake up Christmas morning to snow on the ground, weather records that go back as far as 1871 prove it's something that gets left off of our Christmas list many times. 

First, the technical definition of a "white" Christmas is 1" or more of snow ON the ground on Christmas morning.  Just like in Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol, let's look into our Christmas past and Christmas future.  These are percentages of Christmases on record that have had 1" or more of snow on the ground. Then, we will talk about long range models for this year to see if it might happen for 2018.

Bottom line: the numbers are not great for percentage of White Christmases. Historically, the most likely to see a snowy Christmas is Toledo, but here are the rest of Ohio's numbers.

Toledo         47%

Cleveland    42%

Akron          39%

Dayton        32%

Columbus    26%

Cincinnati   17%

 

I took a look at both the American and European models that have long range temperature forecasts. They both agree around December 23rd and 24th there could be afternoon highs in the 40s but cooler air on Christmas Day. The forecast will change between now and then but it's kind of fun to look at it and get an idea of what Christmas 2018 might be like. The last two lines of the "White Christmas" carol says "May your days be merry and bright and may all your Christmases be white." Hopefully, we will make good on the "merry and bright" because both history and current temperature trends tell us it's not likely at all this Christmas 2018 will be a white one.

Have a happy and safe holiday!!!

Erin