Monday marks the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, beginning what has become Europe’s longest and deadliest conflict since World War II.

Earlier this week, top U.S. and Russian officials held their first face-to-face talks since the war began. Momentum for a peace deal is building, and so is the concern among U.S. allies about what the terms might be.

What You Need To Know

  • Monday marks three years since Russia invaded Ukraine

  • U.S. officials began their first face-to-face talks with Russia since the start of the war; Ukraine was not part of the conversation

  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ruled out Ukraine joining NATO following the war
  • Ukraine is hoping security guarantees will be made as part of a peace deal

After three years of deadly fighting, the war between Ukraine and Russia grinds on. Neither country is making much progress on the battlefield, but Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency already is shaking up the status quo. The president has begun pushing for a peace deal and is seen as unlikely to continue U.S. military aid to Ukraine, at least at existing levels.

“Basically, what's happening is that both sides can continue fighting for several months," said Astrid Chevreuil, visiting fellow for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The big question that is still up in the air is, for how long the Ukrainians are going to be able to keep their defensive position now, as some of the help that was provided to them, especially the military support, is going to come to an end?” 

In last year’s campaign, Trump promised to end the war on his first day in office. That has not happened, but last week, the president spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, seeking a path toward peace. That conversation ended former President Joe Biden’s policy of isolating and punishing Putin for the invasion. Then, on Tuesday, senior U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to begin discussing Ukraine’s future.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders were angry they were not invited, even though the security of their countries is at stake. 

“We know that President Trump wants peace, but the modalities are quite unclear," Chevreuil said. "So the important factors to look at is how Russia is going to respond to that. And Russia has not changed its goals in the negotiation. It still wants to seize major parts of the Ukrainian territory."

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ruled out Ukraine joining NATO, and he’s called Russia returning captured Ukrainian land an “unrealistic demand.” 

The president’s supporters said it was a nod to reality. Critics called the statements foolish concessions without Russia giving up anything in return. Trump’s subsequent statement this week blaming Ukraine for Russia’s invasion, a Kremlin talking point, brought a rebuke from Ukraine’s president.

It also deepened fears in Europe that the U.S. is pivoting toward Russia and away from an alliance that has protected European democracies since World War II. NATO nations are hoping for U.S. security guarantees as part of any peace deal, but Hegseth has said the U.S. wants to reduce its footprint in Europe. 

“It will be important to have a very cohesive set of conditions to ask the Russians to be sure you're not played by them, because Russians are really good in diplomatic negotiations,” said Chevreuil.  

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine and other European countries will have a role in the negotiations, but he did not detail what that role would be.