Republicans appeared to have peeled off independents on most gun-related issues, while independents seem ready to side with Democrats on social issues such as critical race theory, universal background checks and the right to an abortion.

Gun-related issues, which were front and center after the Uvalde school shooting last May, have gotten traction across all groups — Republicans, Democrats and independents — on only one issue in a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll. It asked whether respondents support universal background checks.

What You Need To Know

  • The Spectrum News/Siena College poll indicates independents break with Republicans on some issues, Democrats on others

  • Almost half of independents side with Republicans when it comes to arming teachers in the classroom

  • Independents also opposed banning assault-style weapons

  • Independents tend to lean toward Democrats when it comes to whether racial and ethnic discrimination should be taught in classrooms; Republicans are mixed

The idea of universal background checks is strongly supported among Democrats (88%), Republicans (58%) and independents (74%). That was an overall 72%, with strong support and somewhat support earning an even higher (85%). The issue was a winner in every region of the state, every race, every education level, and even every income level.

“Well, you know, there’s no equivocation Texans are in favor of mandating background checks, 85-11,” said Professor Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute. “It’s another one of those things that—if there were a referendum on the ballot, it would pass dramatically. But again, we don’t get to vote on individual policies in Texas.”

Citizens in about half the states can petition to put issues on the ballot through the initiative or referendum process. Texas has neither process. 

Republicans in Texas, in prior sessions, have argued that background checks complicate simple transactions between people who want to buy and sell their own firearms. But it also shows some potential tension in one unasked question: Do you support concealed carry?

Concealed carry, which passed in 2021, allows anyone who is at least 21 years old to open carry a gun in Texas without a license or training, as long as they have not been convicted of a felony, are not currently subject to a protective order and are not intoxicated at the time.

What Republicans and independents do support—and which teacher unions have opposed—is the right to arm teachers in schools. When the categories of strongly support and somewhat support are combined, 82% of Republicans and 49% of independents support the measure. By comparison, only 26% of Democrats in those same two categories think it’s a good idea.

Arming teachers is a voluntary program approved by state lawmakers in 2013. While the number of school districts that have picked up the School Marshal or School Guardian program is rarely publicized, some school districts—like Stephenville and Riesel—actually advertise the adoption of the Guardian program on their campuses.

Republicans also found some support from independents on banning assault-style weapons. Among Republicans, 72% either somewhat opposed or strongly opposed banning assault-style weapons, along with 53% of independents in the same two categories. By comparison, 77% of Democrats either somewhat supported or strongly supported banning assault-style weapons.

“That’s one of those issues where you’re, in effect, adding a majority of the independents to the predominant majority of Republicans,” Levy said. “Certainly, I think it will be an issue that will favor Gov. Abbott in his campaign against former Congressman O’Rourke.”

Neither party appears to score well on adding independents when it comes to two topics championed by challenger O’Rourke in recent months: the Uvalde shooting rampage and the reliability of the electric grid, given the massive outages in February 2021.

Final numbers showed close to 40% of likely voters in the Spectrum News/Siena College poll said the Uvalde shooting would play no role in which party they preferred in November, including 41% of independents. The only outlier on that question was in the category of ethnicity. According to the poll, 66% of African-Americans and 42% of Latinos said the Uvalde shooting would make it more likely they would vote for Democrats. 

Numbers were similar to the role of electric grid reliability in November voting. Republicans said it would encourage them to vote Republican (55%) or would have no impact at all (40%). Democrats said it would encourage them to vote for Democrats (60%) or have no impact at all (25%). Among independents, the grid failure made them more likely to vote for Democrats (32%) or would have no impact at all (44%). 

The survey also asked about one oft-mentioned and much-favored talking point for Republicans this campaign season: critical race theory. Those who were polled were asked whether they supported “instruction in public schools on the history of racial and ethnic discrimination in America.”

Overall, 63% strongly or somewhat supported the teaching of racial and ethnic discrimination. That was 89% among Democrats, 35% among Republicans and 71% among independents. Republicans opposed the teaching of racial and ethnic discrimination—both strongly oppose and somewhat oppose—at 56%.

Republicans who pushed a critical race theory bill through the legislature last session insist that historical racism—including the Civil Rights movement—will continue to be taught in school. They continue to oppose the idea that institutional racism exists—or that one race continues to consider itself superior to other races, either overtly or covertly, according to the poll.