UPPER ARLINGTON, Ohio — Allison Russo said she knows she faces a tough race.

The state representative and former public health professional is a Democrat running for Congress in a district former President Donald Trump won by 14 points last year.

Trump is backing her opponent, longtime coal lobbyist Mike Carey, who beat 10 fellow Republicans in the August primary with the help of Trump’s endorsement.

Still, Russo is hopeful.

“This district tends to lean more moderate than it does Republican or Democrat,” Russo told Spectrum News in a Zoom interview last week.

The 15th District stretches from the southern suburbs of Columbus all the way east to Athens County.

Republican Steve Stivers represented it for 10 years before resigning in May to go lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. He had developed a reputation as a moderate who worked across the aisle and fought for more civility in politics.

Stivers didn’t support Carey in the primary, but has since met with him and is pledging to vote for him.

It’s notable because Carey told Spectrum News in June that he’ll be more like Ohio Congressman and Trump ally Jim Jordan (R, OH-4) than Stivers, if elected.

“My voting record is going to look a lot more like Jim Jordan’s than it's going to look like the former congressman’s,” Carey said in an interview June 28.

Carey declined to be interviewed for this story and has avoided other interviews and debates in recent weeks.

During his interview in June, Carey did explain he’s a pro-Trump Republican who would prioritize reigning in government spending if elected.

He doesn’t blame Trump for inciting the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters, and he claims no connection to the House Bill 6 scandal that has rocked the Ohio statehouse. Carey lobbied for a coal company that donated money to a group connected to former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, but Carey has not been charged with a crime.

That hasn’t stopped Russo from going after his lobbying career.

“My opponent represents someone who has a long history of being involved in backroom deals and is tied to our state's largest corruption scandal,” she said in last week’s interview. “That is not what I am about.”

Russo is campaigning as an independent Democrat who will prioritize building on the Affordable Care Act and getting President Joe Biden’s infrastructure agenda passed.

Carey is painting Russo as too liberal and aligned with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but Russo insists she will have a more moderate approach. She’s also not thrilled the infrastructure agenda remains stalled in Congress.

“I am just as frustrated as Republicans and Democrats and Independents right now about not being able to get this bipartisan infrastructure bill across the finish line, portions of this Build Back Better agenda,” Russo said.

The winner of the special election on Nov. 2 will immediately take office.

Although Carey is the favorite, political professionals are watching the race to see the relative strength of each candidate compared to how the presidential candidates performed in the district last November.

That comparison will provide some insight into how both Biden and Trump are fairing with Ohio voters.

But the shape of the 15th District will likely change next year thanks to redistricting, so the winner could face another tough campaign.