COLUMBUS, Ohio—Traditional high school graduates whose families can afford to send them off to college aren't jumping at the chance to go to college as they once did.
- College enrollment about to decline drastically
- Projecting fewer high school graduates in 2032
- Impact of 2008 recession/declining birth rate is a major cause
Research shows a decline in enrollment and the latest research projects indicate that things are about to go from bad to worse all the way through 2032.
That will leave colleges and universities to find new ways to attract students.
Prospective students and their families are touring college campuses before the start of the semester. While there's many who plan to enroll, there are a large number of high school graduates who won't, even if their families can afford it.
"They show significant downturns really across the nation, but very specifically in the Midwest, in the Northeast, along the East Coast, even in the South," said Jefferson Blackburn-Smith, vice-president of enrollment at Otterbein University.
Blackburn-Smith says there are a lot of reasons as to why. One of the biggest reasons—a projection of smaller graduating classes.
"For example, in Ohio, they're projecting somewhere between 7.5 percent and 15 percent fewer high school graduates in 2032 than we have today," said Blackburn-Smith.
It's something Blackburn-Smith says is a significant problem in the state of Ohio.
But that's just one part of it. He says, college demographics have changed, too, and will continue to change.
"What we're seeing is significantly fewer traditionally college-going students, mostly white students," Blackburn-Smith said.
Although there's fewer white students, Blackburn-Smith says schools like Otterbein are seeing more first-generation, low-income, immigrant, and minority college students.
Yet, that still doesn't make up for the biggest problem of all. That is, impacts from the 2008 recession, from which many industries, including higher education, are still trying to recover from.
"The birth rate has been declining, especially again among those traditional college-going populations. Two, we know that when we got to the great recession in 2008, one of the immediate outcomes of that was that young families stopped having children," said Blackburn-Smith.
Although others simply delayed having children, it now means colleges and universities won't feel the fallout until 2026.
And that looks like a 15 percent loss of traditional college students on campuses, according to a study done by Carelton Professor Nathan Grawe.
Regardless, Blackburn-Smith says while the results of the 2008 recession caught many by surprise, Ivy League schools won't feel the pinch as much as regional colleges and universities as time goes on.
"Regional schools who are very dependent on people from their own backyard are likely to struggle,” said Blackburn-Smith
With more than 160 higher education institutions in Ohio alone, yet fewer students to select from, Blackburn-Smith expects the competition for students to stiffen as they look to attract the same students.
And that's why schools are developing new recruiting strategies.
That includes targeting students from high poverty and urban communities, while boosting financial aid assistance, academic support and student internship, work opportunities.
But only time will tell if those strategies will help schools to survive the drastic declines of the traditional high school graduate turned college student through 2032.