COLUMBUS, Ohio — The fate of Ohio’s legislative and congressional district maps are still up in the air less than three months from the May 3 primary. Despite that, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are hesitant to move the primary back.
What was supposed to be a busy day at the Statehouse Tuesday quickly went quiet. Committees in the Ohio House and Senate canceled hearings where Republicans were expected to unveil their latest congressional map proposals.
“It became apparent that it wasn’t possible to get a two-thirds vote in the House, which wouldn’t enable any map adopted to go into effect right away,” said Ohio House Speaker Robert Cupp, R-Lima.
“Given that we have not seen any maps from the Republican Senate caucus or the House caucus, and I think given that there was some question whether or not we could actually get enough votes needed for an emergency clause moving straight from the legislative process to the redistricting commission, it’s not entirely surprising, which is what I suspect will happen,” said Ohio House Minority Leader Allison Russo, D-Upper Arlington.
And so the process remains in limbo, just over three weeks from the congressional filing deadline. By early next week, it could be back in the hands of the Ohio Redistricting Commission, which would then have until mid-March before it needs to submit an approved map to the Ohio Supreme Court.
Ohio voters approved changes to how the state draws its boundaries for Ohio House and Senate districts and the state’s U.S. House districts.
“It’s interesting to see how the court is really holding the line on their interpretation of the amendments that were passed to the Constitution to institute this measure of map drawing that it hew closely to the 54-46 percent split of voter turnout Republican and Democrat over the last several years,” said Thomas Sutton, Ph.D., political science professor at Baldwin Wallace University.
As the clock ticks, we inch closer to the May 3 primary. It is a date neither party wants to change, but at some point they might not have a choice.
“Just from a functional standpoint that has to do with boardroom elections that are printing ballots. They need a certain timeline to be able to print those ballots and have them ready for early voting. So under current rules, early voting starts approximately a month before the primary that backs you up to April 2nd roughly. And so (if) we don’t have a resolution as to where these districts are and therefore who can be candidates in those districts because we have a residency requirement for those state legislative candidates, then they’re going to have to move the primary,” said Sutton.
The uncertainty leaves congressional and legislative candidates without answers as the commission tries for a third time to redraw the legislative maps a week after their filing deadline passed.
“For seats with incumbents, they’re going to have a natural advantage if in fact the incumbent is in an area that more or less is where they were before. If not, then it’s going to be like an open seat race. And in that case, it’s kind of a probably more of a voting party-line vote than anything else. I think that’s what you’re going to see voters rely on,” Sutton said.
“This is a lot more complicated than getting your Etch A Sketch out and drawing squares or blocks in the state of Ohio,” said Cupp.
It is unclear at this point what the schedule for hearings is for either process or when other maps could be released to the public.
While Republicans did not unveil their congressional proposal today, the Democrats did. They say their map would give the GOP an 8-7 advantage, which is in line with 54 percent of the vote that Republicans have received in recent elections.