COLUMBUS, Ohio — A study from The Ohio State University suggests precipitation patterns have changed so much over the past few years, that severe droughts and periods of heavier rainfall may become more common and extreme for parts of the U.S.
The study analyzed modern precipitation data, historical tree rings and climate models from the years 850 A.D. to forecasted models for the future, up to 2100.
Results suggested that climate change has shifted precipitation patterns across North America to “extremes that were not experienced before industrialization began around the mid-1800s.”
Researchers stated that the American Southwest and Mexico can expect to face even more severe droughts in the future, whereas the northeast can expect more severe wet years. These patterns are expected to get extreme in the future.
As for the middle of the U.S. researchers estimate there will be big swings between high-rainfall years — also known as pluvials — and drier summers through the rest of the century.
“It’s very much a tale of Southwest versus the Northeast for most of the seasons,” said senior author James Stagge, assistant professor of civil, environmental and geodetic engineering at Ohio State, in a release. “Mexico and the American Southwest tends to get drier across more or less all seasons, whereas we’re seeing in the Northeast — and Ohio is included in that — a trend toward wetter, particularly in the winter and early spring.”
Ohio has been facing its fair share of drought issues this year. Currently, multiple counties in southwest and parts of central Ohio are under an extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Other areas of the state, while not as severe, are facing drought issues as well.
The researchers noted that the droughts and pluvials won’t occur in a predictable way..
“So you might be going from, say, this year our drought is really bad, and in five years or so we might see the wettest pluvial we’ve had in a while,” Stagge said in a release. “That variability is concerning because it changes how we might need to manage water to prepare for more extremes in both ways. Trying to plan for that is a real challenge. This is all part of the same pattern moving into the future. It’s only going to get worse.”
This research differs from past research, Ohio State noted. Previous studies have looked at how humans have driven climate change and how those actions possibly influenced extreme weather events. This research investigates centuries-long trends.
“What we can say is, ‘here is the scale of change we’ve seen in the past 100 years under an increase in greenhouse gas concentration, and here’s what we saw in the previous 700 years,’” said former Ohio State graduate student Kyungmin Sung, author of the paper, in a release. “And the scale of the change we’re seeing now and into the future is dramatically larger in many areas than any natural climate variability we saw prior.”
The research states the effects of these extreme weather patterns, whether it’s a drought or heavier periods of rain, will likely affect numerous industries, including farming, construction and city planning.
“Planners, government agencies and engineers want to do the right thing and plan for a potentially changing climate, but oftentimes, they don’t necessarily have the numbers or the broader picture of what’s going to be happening where,” Stagge said in a release. “This puts regions on notice. In the Southwest, you’re going to have less water to deal with, and if you’re managing a farm in the middle of the country, you might be seeing wider swings between droughts and pluvials.”
The full study can be found here.