WORCESTER, Mass. - With the 2024 presidential election now less than six months away, new polling shows former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in five of six key battleground states.

The poll, conducted by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer, found Trump Leads Biden in a head-to-head matchup in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by two points. 

Dr. Matt Motta, an assistant professor of health law, policy and management at Boston University’s School of Public Health, said there are quite a few takeaways from this early look at the race, including President Biden’s increased focus on fundraising.

“One of the things that we know is that President Biden has put quite a bit of effort into fundraising and advertising following the first round of battleground polls,” Motta said. 

Additionally, both candidates’ ability to retain their base of voters has come into clearer focus.

“President Trump was winning back a very good portion of his base, in excess of eight in 10 people who voted for him last time around,” Motta said. “There’s much more uncertainty on the Biden side, with just around seven in ten backing the President who backed him in the past.” 

Going forward, Motta is curious to see how President Biden’s campaign renews enthusiasm among his base, and bring those who voted for him in 2020 back into the fold.

The same polling also asked voters about independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who enjoyed more support than any third-party candidate in more than 30 years. 

Motta is closely watching Kennedy’s impact on the race, and for now, it appears he’s pulling voters away from both parties.

“He has roughly equal appeal to Trump’s voters as he does to potential Biden voters, but there’s something really important we need to keep in mind when we think about RFK Jr.’s candidacy,” Motta said. “There’s a lot of hope suggesting that he could be in a position to play a spoiler role, allowing one candidate to get a lead in key battleground states. But it’s really important to remember that RFK Jr. is not currently on the ballot in many key battleground states.” 

Of course, Election Day will also feature dozens of House and Senate races, and Democrats will look to maintain their razor-thin majority in the Senate. Democratic candidates in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have a slight edge in the polls over their GOP challengers and are faring better than President Biden in some states.

“What we’re seeing is a lot of uncertainty,” Motta said. “Voters who are backing Senate Democrats in these key battleground states, but haven’t quite made up their mind yet about President Biden, either unsure who they’re going to vote for, or who may be backing a third party candidate.” 

For President Biden’s campaign, Motta said figuring out the types of people who are voting for Senate Democrats but are undecided in the presidential race will be key to turning these latest poll numbers around.

President Biden and former President Trump will have a chance to reach undecided voters on June 27, when CNN is scheduled to host the first debate of this election cycle. 

It’s happening much earlier than the typical mid-September to October debate schedule, and Motta said that’s not the only difference between the 2024 presidential debates and debates of the past.

“This is going to be the first series of debates organized by the campaigns,” Motta said. “The Trump campaign has agreed to play by the debate parameters set out by the Biden campaign, in what is quite a break from precedent. We're no longer working with the bipartisan Presidential Debate Commission. This is really important, because if one of the candidates was to potentially change their mind about what the rules of engagement are going to be, or not accept some of the rules that were previously agreed upon, there's no third party that can hold either side accountable.” 

Still, Motta said the debates themselves are typically only viewed by people who are highly interested in politics and have likely already made up their mind. He feels the debate’s highlights and reception in the media after it airs will be just as important for both campaigns.

“How they’re reposted and shared on social media,” Motta said. “That’s how most Americans are going to come in contact with the debates, and that’s where we might see an effect on how they might shape the way people vote.”