WASHINGTON — Sen. Mitch McConnell’s surprise announcement that he is stepping down as Senate Republican leader kicks off a high-stakes race to succeed him. All eyes are on the so-called “Three Johns” — Senators John Thune of North Dakota, John Barraso of Wyoming and John Cornyn of Texas. Cornyn’s rise to the top job would be monumental for the Lone Star State, but some analysts say his path to get there is lined with obstacles.

Cornyn has not kept it a secret. He has long been interested in succeeding McConnell — and now that longtime Kentucky senator has decided to step aside, that time has come.

After McConnell announced he’s stepping aside on the Senate floor, Cornyn was in the chamber and shook his hand. Thursday, the senior senator from the Lone Star State made his bid for leadership official. 

“I am asking my Republican colleagues to give me the opportunity to succeed Leader McConnell. I have learned a lot during my time both in and out of Senate leadership,” Cornyn said in a statement. “Throughout my time I’ve built a track record of listening to colleagues and seeking consensus, while leading the fight to stop bad policies that are harmful to our nation and the conservative cause.”

Some analysts say Cornyn, who was previously the Texas attorney general and a Texas Supreme Court justice, has some advantages over his likely rivals for the position.

“He's got an extensive legal background, and so that's one aspect of his candidacy that would be advantageous,” said Matthew Wilson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “He also comes from a big state and a southern border state, which is not true of the others.” 

Whoever is the Senate’s next GOP leader will face a group divided between America-first isolationists who are allies of former President Donald Trump and more traditional Republicans who favor U.S. engagement abroad. Cornyn, a McConnell ally who once served as the Senate Republican whip, has been a more traditional conservative. 

Cornyn waited until Trump won New Hampshire, the second Republican primary contest, before endorsing him for president. 

“The reason that he came out and endorsed Trump was that whoever is going to lead the party in the Senate is going to need, if not Trump's support, at least to avoid his active opposition,” Wilson said. “If Trump comes out against somebody, we've seen he wields a lot of power within the Republican Party, including within the Republican Party on Capitol Hill.”

Cornyn also mentioned the former president in his official announcement, writing “I helped President Trump advance his agenda through the Senate, including passing historic tax reform and remaking our judiciary.” 

The junior senator from Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz, was among those GOP lawmakers who recently said it was time for McConnell to bow out. When asked about backing Cornyn for leader, Cruz reportedly said that was a decision for another day.

While he is a conservative who has voted with his party and Trump most of the time, Cornyn has a history of working across the aisle. Sometimes that has raised criticism. Cornyn was booed at a Texas GOP convention following his successful negotiations on bipartisan gun safety legislation after the Uvalde mass shooting. 

Some political experts say Cornyn would have to convince those colleagues who have been dissatisfied with McConnell that he would be different. 

In his statement, Cornyn said he thought the chamber is broken but expressed optimism that it could be fixed. 

"I intend to play a major role in fixing it," he said. "From experience, I have learned what works in the Senate and what does not, and I am confident Senate Republicans can restore our institution to the essential role it serves in our constitutional republic."

Cornyn also topped the list as the “most effective” Republican senator in Congress during the 117th session of Congress, according to a ranking by the Center for Effective Lawmaking at Vanderbilt University and the University of Virginia.

Republican political consultant Hans Klingler, who once worked for Cornyn, says the senator’s legislative accomplishments can help carry him through.

“John Cornyn has been able to across the board address conservative concerns with conservative leadership, and I think in the end, that will bode well for him,” Klingler told Spectrum News. “When you are legislating and leading you, you have to be able to listen to all sides, it doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to act on that.”

The last Texan who held a Senate leadership position was Democratic Sen. Lyndon Johnson, who later became vice president and president. 

When asked what it would mean if Cornyn was elected leader, Klingler said, “It can only mean, you know, one thing for Texas, and that will mean that we are continually going to be put on the map politically around the United States.”

After Cornyn voted early last week in the primary election in Austin, he was asked during a press availability if he would be the next top Senate Republican. 

“That will be a decision made by members of the Republican conference, and heaven knows how that'll turn out,” Cornyn said.