LOUISVILLE, Ky. — University of Louisville political science professor Dewey Clayton says he’s focused on turnout, which is traditionally low during an off-year election.

What You Need To Know

  •  UofL political science professor, Dewey Clayton, says he will be focused on turnout on Tuesday

  • Emerson College polling shows Andy Beshear, D-Ky., and Daniel Cameron, R-Ky., in a dead heat

  •  Since the 1960s, Kentucky has only elected three Republican governors

  • The Secretary of State's office expects 40% turnout

Clayton said, “We’ve just recently had an Emerson poll to come out that shows this race clearly tightening from where it had been just several weeks ago. And that was really a surprise because it appeared that all of the momentum was on Gov. Beshear’s side and it appeared that that was just going to continue till the end, and so all of the sudden, something has happened, and so that clearly has to have given Cameron’s campaign a huge boost.”

Emerson College polling shows Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., and Attorney General Daniel Cameron, R-Ky., in a dead heat—tied at 47%, with 4% undecided.

A month ago, Emerson College polling had Beshear with a 16 point lead.

In 2019, Beshear beat Republican Matt Bevin by about 5,000 votes.  

“He was running against a Republican who was not that popular. And so let’s just be honest. And that helped to motivate a lot of people to get out there. So the question is going to be if those same people are going to be motivated enough to still come out again. I mean, like I said, there are a lot of unknowns here,” said Clayton.

Beshear’s message has focused on economic development, infrastructure and support for bipartisan legislation like sports betting and medical Cannabis.

Cameron has campaigned on what he calls Kentucky’s values, reducing violent crime and criticism over the governor’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and veto of anti-trans legislation.

And as the votes come in Tuesday night, Clayton says the rest of the country will be watching.

Clayton said, “There’s one Democrat in constitutional office this year and he’s at the top of the ticket. And so I think a lot of other states are saying, well, how is that possible? If he can do this, there should probably be some lessons that I can learn from this.”

Kentucky has only elected three Republican governors since the 1960s.

Currently, Republicans hold a supermajority in the legislature.

In 2019, voter turnout was 42%.

The Secretary of State’s office is expecting turnout for this year to be about the same.

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