The November midterm elections are still more than five months away, but already nearly half a billion dollars in political ads have aired so far this year – most in states with primary races.
Experts say trends have emerged in how candidates choose to spend their ad money, with an increasing amount in recent weeks being spent on both sides of one particular issue: access to abortion.
The increase can be attributed, in part, to a leaked Supreme Court draft decision, first published by POLITICO on May 2, that showed the nation’s highest court appeared prepared to overturn the federal right to access an abortion awarded in the 1973 Roe v. Wade case.
The shift in ad focus was most pronounced for Democrats, as Republicans had been airing ads mentioning abortion access well before the leaked document publicly circulated. To date, Republicans have spent nearly twice as much on advertisements than Democrats, at $295 million compared with $189 million, respectively.
After the court’s draft opinion leaked, ads supporting abortion rights jumped from 6% of all commercials by Democratic House candidates up to 22%, according to an analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project. For GOP House candidates, ads involving abortion – mostly in opposition to abortion access – increased from 13.5% before the opinion was revealed to 24.5% in the days after.
“A strong hypothesis I would have would be that abortion will become one of the top issues in the general election,” Wesleyan Media Project co-director Michael Franz told Spectrum News.
The possible overturning of Roe v. Wade has not only fomented tensions between the two parties, but has also highlighted divisions between more moderate, traditional politicians and those seeking to make broader change – as is the case in the primary race for Texas’ 28th Congressional District.
Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar – who was the only House Democrat who last year voted against a bill that would have codified abortion protections into federal law – is seeking reelection in the district spanning from the eastern side of San Antonio down to the U.S.-Mexico border. Even before the draft opinion was leaked, his primary challenger Jessica Cisneros leaned on his abortion views as one of many reasons why Texas should vote him out come the primary elections on May 24.
After the leaked draft, Cisneros posted a video directly to Democratic leaders asking them to withdraw their support for Cuellar given his position on the issue.
Cisneros’ campaign ads had previously focused on a range of policy areas where she and Cuellar disagreed, with frequent topics including climate change, education and civil rights. Cisneros’ latest ad deals entirely with the issue of abortion.
“We showed up and spoke out when Texas Republicans passed the most extreme abortion ban in the country. But Henry Cuellar sided with them – the lone Democrat against a woman's right to make her own decisions, even opposing life saving care,” the ad says in part.
Cuellar’s own recent ads have attempted to shift the focus to some of Cisneros’ more progressive views and away from the issue of abortion.
“Don't believe Jessica Cisneros’ lies, attacking Henry Cuellar to distract from her agenda that will hurt South Texas because she knows her agenda won't fly here,” an advertisement says in part, pointing to Cisneros’ views on immigration policy as one that could hurt Texans.
Alabama’s primary race for governor has similarly showcased a divide in the state's Republican party on the issue, with a recent ad from candidate Lindy Blanchard criticizing current Gov. Kay Ivey – who is also a Republican and is seeking reelection – for her decision to keep “the abortion clinics open” during a time in the pandemic when churches were closed to the public.
“Lindy Blanchard is a defender of life,” the ad states.