FRANKFORT, Ky. — Through the first few months of the current fiscal year, more money has come into Kentucky.

Overall, revenue grew by 20% in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of last year. About 8% of that growth comes from a recent $225 million legal settlement involving video poker that Kentucky collected in September.

What You Need To Know

  • The Consensus Forecasting Group helps lawmakers craft a budget by predicting how much revenue they will have

  • The group met Thursday to hear an update on the economy

  • Revenue grew in the first quarter of the new fiscal year, but multiple issues are concerning budget forecasters

  • The group will meet again in December to give lawmakers a final revenue estimate before the next legislative session

There is some cause for concern though, as members of the Consensus Forecasting Group heard Thursday.

J. Michael Jones with the Office of State Budget Director said the delta variant spreading and reduced consumer activity are two big reasons to worry about what the future holds. Supply chain issues are adding more stress to the economy.

“And further cuts to the GDP due to production issues, specifically with vehicles, but with lots of other manufactured items too as there continues to be supply chain issues,” he said. “Specifically, shortages of computer chips, but also the availability of other inputs, especially those produced in China that have to be shipped over.”

He said it’s difficult to forecast what lawmakers will be working with in the years ahead because of that.

Other factors like inflation and the high job turnover rate right now also complicate things.

“It was quite a jolt to hear that 4 million people decided to quit from their jobs. That’s an all-time record,” Jones said. “So there’s always things moving forward, but unfortunately that’s one thing that we just have to deal with given the nature of time.”

The Consensus Forecasting Group will meet again in December to give a final revenue estimate for lawmakers to use in budget talks next year.