U.S. drivers are expected to pay less at the pump next year, although the average price for gas could once again exceed $4 a gallon by summer, according to GasBuddy’s 2023 Fuel Outlook, which was released Wednesday.

According to the forecast, the average price of a gallon of regular gas across all 12 months will be $3.49 — nearly 50 cents lower than what it was this year.

The expected drop will be the result of improved refinery capacity, although there is still much uncertainty due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the gas-focused tech company said.

“2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a statement. “It could be expensive.

“Basically, curveballs are coming from every direction,” he added. “Extreme amounts of volatility remain possible, but should become slightly more muted in the year ahead. I don’t think we’ve ever seen such an amount of volatility as we saw this year, and that will be a trend that likely continues to lead to wider uncertainty over fuel prices going into 2023.”

Americans are expected to spend about $471 billion on gasoline next year, down $55 billion from 2022. The average household will spend $2,471, down $277. 

Gas prices are expected to resume their usual seasonal fluctuations, hitting their lowest mark in February — an average of around $2.99 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. They’ll then begin to climb steadily before peaking in the $4 range in June, the forecast says. After falling in July and rising again in August, gas prices will dip lower and lower throughout the fall and winter months.

While most of the country will be paying around $4 a gallon, drivers in California could be paying nearly $7, GasBuddy said. Prices are generally higher there due to higher taxes and clean fuel requirements.

Diesel prices, meanwhile, are projected to average $4.12 a gallon for the year, falling each month until September, when they’ll bottom out around $3.81.

The average price for regular gas Wednesday was $3.13 a gallon, according to AAA. Diesel cost $4.68.