First off, let me mention this is an article strictly looking at the numbers and not the why.
In saying that, I thought it’d be interesting to see if our summers are truly getting hotter and if we should possibly re-calibrate what it means to be seasonable or average during the summer months in Buffalo, NY.
We currently use a data set that goes from 1981 to 2010, so 30yrs, to calculate our weather averages.
For this particular study we’re going to look at the monthly average temperatures for meteorological summer. Those months are June, July, and August.
The monthly average temperature is calculated by taking the daily average temperature, average from the high temperature and low temperature of the day, and averaging that number out over the course of the entire month.
The average monthly temperatures using the 1981 to 2010 data set are June at 66.3 degrees, July at 71.1 degrees, and August at 69.6 degrees. Since 2000 our average monthly temperatures are June at 66.9 degrees(up 0.6 degrees), July at 72 degrees(up 0.9 degrees), and August at 70.8 degrees(up 1.2 degrees).
Those are some pretty substantial increases, especially July and August.
Now, if we just look at the last 10 years, the averages are June at 67 degrees(up 0.7 degrees), July at 73.4 degrees(up a whopping 2.3 degrees), and August at 71.2 degrees(up 1.6 degrees). These numbers definitely show it's getting warmer, and this is becoming the new normal, at least for now.
We can also look at how many of these months are currently in the top 10 warmest and coldest for that particular month in recorded history.
Over the course of 21 yrs, you’d expect these numbers to be at least somewhat close. However, there are 10 top warmest months, and probably 11 if you include this August, and only 2 in the top 10 coldest months.
We also just recorded the hottest month in recorded history for Buffalo, shattering the previous record by 1.4 degrees.
We also just experienced the hottest day since 1953 and came within a degree of tying the record for hottest temperatures ever recorded in Buffalo.
It's safe to say our summers here in Buffalo are getting hotter and by a good margin. At least as of now, this is the new normal with no signs of any big shifts.
With such large increases, these new numbers probably give a better resemblance of this new normal and what it means to be average during the summer months.