Summer is about halfway over, but forecasters say extreme weather isn’t going anywhere for a while.

A La Niña weather system this fall and winter could plummet much of California back into drought conditions.

LA Times staff writer Grace Toohey joined Lisa McRee on "LA Times Today" to talk about the likelihood of La Niña and what it means for California. 

Toohey explained the difference between La Niña and El Niño weather systems. 

“These are recurring patterns that we see coming from the Pacific. And they’re important because they really affect our weather and climate here in California and across the U.S. El Niño, which is the pattern that we’ve been in for about a year, is this warm, moister, counterpart compared to La Niña, which we think of as kind of the drier counterpart. It tends to bring drier weather across much of the US,” she said. 

Toohey reported California is currently in a neutral system.

The state was in a La Niña pattern from 2020 to 2023. She explained how the system impacts the U.S.

“La Niña really affects a broad swath of North America. Southern California, particularly, is vulnerable to those drought conditions during La Niña. In the Bay area, it’s kind of a tossup. Scientists say you might get kind of a drier conditions. It might be kind of normal conditions that might be a little bit wetter. But actually the Pacific Northwest gets all that wet weather that we’re not seeing down in Southern California. It gets pushed up further north. And then across the U.S., we’ll actually see the most of the south tends to be drier during La Niña as well, even over to the east coast,” Toohey explained. 

While there is no guarantee of La Niña developing this year, Toohey said scientists believe there is a strong chance. 

“Scientists are saying there’s about a 70% chance La Niña will develop over the next few months. Here’s about 25% to 30% chance that you will not be developing. We’re not really sure what that means when we’re in neutral conditions. It really just means that we could swing one way or the other,” she said. “Scientists tend to look toward other patterns and other impacts when they’re trying to predict the weather.”

In the meantime, Toohey said that Californians should expect high temperatures to last beyond summer and into the fall.

Click the arrow above to watch the full interview.

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