ORANGE COUNTY, Calif. — As election results crystallize new trends and confirm old developments, Orange County Democrats are already counting their winnings.

While Republicans have held onto their two coveted congressional seats, and the balance of power on the board of supervisors is undecided, Democrats have locked in new gains.

What You Need To Know

  • While all the results for the 2022 midterm elections are not in, Democrats have already gained ground in Orange County
  • Orange County, once California's great Republican redoubt, has become a competitive battleground in recent years
  • AAPI candidates, particularly women, were especially successful in Orange County elections
  • Both Republican U.S. Representatives in Orange County were decisively reelected

“What excites me is that in 2020, we flipped 20 local seats and we’re on track to do the same this year — maybe a little bit more,” said Ajay Mohan, executive director of the Democratic Party of Orange County.

A key to their gains has been a diverse selection of candidates that better reflects the demographic changes the county has seen. Orange County’s white majority ended in 2004, with the population falling ever since, as Asian Americans and other groups gain ground.

Among the gains, Mohan anticipates 10 to 13 city council seats to go to Democrats, fortifying party influence of issues like community choice energy and homelessness spending. The party has also secured two seats on the Orange County Board of Supervisors and could get a majority for the first time since 1976, if Katrina Foley manages to edge Republican Pat Bates in a tight race.

Women have been a key to gains for both parties, especially members of the Asian American and Pacific Islander community.

“It’s crystal clear that AAPI women in Orange County did the best across the board,” said Jimmy Camp, a local political strategist.

Democrats have succeeded in recent years as demographics in the county have shifted. While Republicans have lost local influence in the House, they have managed to turn back some recent Democrat victories.

Reps. Young Kim, R-Calif., and Michelle Steel, R-Calif., who were among the first Korean American women to go to the U.S. House of Representatives, won decisive races to secure second terms.

Both parties have understood that the growing AAPI community is not a monolith and contains a range of political and cultural beliefs requiring candidates thoughtful of those differences.

“It’s not just this election. You go back two years ago, and Asian American women did better by comparison than anyone else,” he said.

Camp, who helped run canvassing operations for Lisa Bartlett’s primary campaign for California’s 49th Congressional District, said Republicans should have backed her. Bartlett, who is Japanese American, has served as mayor of Dana Point and eight years on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. Instead, party leaders backed Bryan Maryott, who is currently behind in his third try against Democrat incumbent Mark Levin.

Camp and Mohan agreed that voting bases can take time to become organized. And in recent years, leadership of both parties has been more determined to promote and finance the campaigns of minority candidates.

Mohan said Democrats have benefitted from a youth movement.

“My generation of Asian Americans are the ones I know who are getting involved,” said Mohan, who is Indian American. “I can see my generation of Asian Americans participating in a way our parents never thought would be in play.”

But while Democrats can boast a winning streak over multiple elections, many voters remain willing to back Republicans. Among them is Scott Baugh, who is currently keeping the count close with U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif. in the 47th District. Baugh, a pro-life candidate, has been more competitive than past candidates despite Porter’s national profile and enormous fundraising abilities. As of Tuesday night, Porter was ahead by just more than 3,700 votes with ballots still waiting to be counted.

While Porter, a noted progressive, may be in trouble, local Democrats have been more willing to push that strain of the party. Even at the expense of sitting Democrats.

The party supported progressive Sunny Park to excise Doug Chaffee from his seat on the board of supervisors, losing that race decisively.

While many storylines have been established and verified, the county still has at least 116,000 votes left to count. But how they will be distributed is impossible to say.

The Orange County Registrar of Voters will release the next batch of results at 5 p.m. Wednesday.