ORANGE COUNTY, Calif. — When Democrats toppled former President Donald Trump and took half the Senate in 2020, Republicans began to plot their comeback.
As the 2022 midterm primaries approach, local GOP candidates and party members hope a red wave will sweep Orange County, protecting sitting House members Michelle Steel, R-Calif., and Young Kim, R-Calif., from Democrat rivals. And nationwide, they have hopes of taking the majority of the Senate, erasing the tie-breaker advantage Democrats have had with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Among the many important races, the Orange County Board of Supervisors has three open seats.
”There’s only been one supervisor incumbent in the last 40 years who has lost their seat,” said Ajay Mohan, executive director of the Democratic Party of Orange County.
But internecine party battles in the newly redrawn 5th and 4th District races could disrupt best laid plans.
Democrats have Katrina Foley, who won the 2nd District supervisor seat in a special election after Steel gave it up to represent the 48th Congressional District.
Kevin Muldoon, who has been preparing to run for about two years, made a stab at the special election for the 2nd supervisor seat in 2021. Against the wishes of the Republican Party of Orange County Chair Fred Whitaker, he ran against John Moorlach, who ultimately could not make up the split vote.
The 4th District could be complicated for Democrats, who have endorsed Buena Park Mayor Sunny Park instead of incumbent Democrat Doug Chaffee.
Who wins those local races may come down to money more than name recognition. There’s also the added influence of national politics that has dominated the conversation in recent weeks.
The political landscape has changed in the two years since President Joe Biden took the presidency from Trump.
The census jumbled precincts all over the nation and, in California, eliminated a congressional district to bring the states total to 53. War has shifted balance with the economy, and the leaked draft of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has ignited another talking point hot for debate.
Democrats like what it can do for them.
“The leak with Roe v. Wade will energize women to look at this primary for what it is: crucial. And it is crucial for our abortion rights and to protect our other rights,” Mohan said.
World politics has changed, too. The pandemic no longer elicits the concern it did when the coronavirus first arrived on U.S. shores. New fears have surfaced to plummet Biden’s approval ratings as the midterms approach, a point in the cycle of each presidency where the incumbent party in most vulnerable.
Others, however, disagree about the impact of the Supreme Court decision on abortion.
“You look at Roe v. Wade, I don’t see how that affects primaries. I think it’s going to help the ‘I’m pro-life, no exceptions’ candidate,” said Jimmy Camp, an Orange County-based political strategist. “I think it’s going to be a wash. I think voter registration is more of a factor than redistricting. There are just fewer Republicans.”
Another pivotal race for the county is that of Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., who currently holds the 45th District and will run for the 47th.
“Irvine is a highly educated, highly affluent and highly Democratic district and is still fully encased in her district,” Mohan said.
Both parties also anticipate a change in the ground game. Democrats in OC delayed their ground game in 2020 because of the pandemic or skipped it altogether. The party thinks it’s their chance to take back lost congressional seats and capitalize on growing registration numbers. Republicans believe they still hold the advantage.
“Their ground game in 2018 relied on national money to pay for ballot harvesting. It wasn’t there in 2020, and it won’t be there in 2022,” Whitaker said. “Our ground game is just better.”