LOS ANGELES — The pandemic has lulled a lot of us into thinking we can book travel last minute and still find a deal. But those days are over, according to a new study from the Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development.
“Americans are eager to travel again, and many are experiencing a wakeup call when they see how costly things are becoming,” said Chaddick Institute Director, Joseph Schwieterman. “In only a few weeks, we’ve gone from having abundant bargains to highly expensive prices nationwide.”
Looking at prices for trips of less than 500 miles taken by plane, train, bus and rental car in advance of the Memorial Day weekend, the study found that air fares purchased three days ahead have risen sharply since late January, increasing by more than $80 round trip.
Popular routes for Southern Californians this weekend include travel to Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego and San Francisco.
Airline trips booked 10 days in advance have likewise seen higher fares, increasing from $114 in December to $122 in January to $142 this month.
“Air travel has bounced back faster than just about anyone anticipated due to pent-up demand for travel and strong household income,” Schwieterman said. “It’s a best-case scenario for airlines and a worst-case scenario for travelers.”
Rail fares have also moved upward, rising from $43 to $60 between late January and May.
Travelers seeking refuge in a car rental aren’t likely to have much luck. The study found that many routes were either unavailable or more expensive than flying. The median price for a car rental booked 10 days in advance and starting May 28 was $233, excluding fuel, compared with $162 for an airplane ticket.
Rental cars heading to San Francisco or Phoenix from Los Angeles were completely sold out.
“For some routes, if you wait until the last minute, your only option may be Greyhound, and that’s an option a lot of people are unwilling to pursue,” Schwieterman said. "Many people view inter-city bus travel as only for people who can't afford other means."
But with increasing prices for other forms of travel, more people may fall into that category.
Bus fares have been trending in the opposite direction from all other forms of travel. For a trip purchased 10 days in advance, traveling from LA to San Francisco this weekend would cost $52 on Greyhound, compared with $67 on Amtrak and $134 on Southwest Airlines.
About 2.8 million Southern Californians are expected to travel over the Memorial Day holiday weekend — a 64% increase compared with last year, according to the Auto Club of Southern California. Almost 90% of them will drive.
The steep uptick in car travel comes at a time when Americans are facing large increases in fuel prices. A gallon of regular gas in LA currently costs $4.19, according to GasBuddy.com.
Summer 2021 is likely to be a difficult time for travelers.
“Air and rail passengers who have grown accustomed to waiting until the last minute to book during the pandemic will face strong incentives to book farther in advance,” Schwieterman said. “Ticket purchase habits developed during the pandemic will be gradually undone by increasing prices.”